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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
940 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Update...
made a few tweaks to sky grids as cirrus shield remains rather
thick over the eastern half of the County Warning Area with a some breaks toward
the west. The implications will be more sun out west and warmer
temperatures and cooler to the east under the clouds. Lower maxt
grids about 3-4 degrees over the east and kept them the same out
west. Rest of the forecast looks good to go. 43

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 533 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

Short term [through tomorrow night]...
a cool/dry start to the day with mild conditions persisting thru
this afternoon as mid/high clouds increase from the SW. These increased
clouds will be courtesy of a well-defined upper low that was left
behind over West Texas (from the main long wave trof yesterday that
is now currently affecting the NE U.S.). not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this system as it moves across this
afternoon/evening as the air mass will be too dry (across northern
half of the cwa), but can't totally rule out a few sprinkles
along the coast. Highs today should top off in the lower/mid 70s
range...cooling off once again tonight as clouds clear to the east.

As surface high pressure (centered over the mid MS river valley)
moves off to the NE, onshore winds set to return on Fri. Warming
temperatures will be on tap. Still no issues for southeast Texas with that
disturbance currently near the Bay of Campeche as TPC/models are
keeping its track toward the NE Gulf for Fri or Sat. 41

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
will be keeping with warming temperatures across southeast Texas for Sat/sun
even with the passage of a weak reinforcing shot of drier air over
the northern half of the County Warning Area. Some very isolated activity is possible
Sat afternoon as this boundary moves into the area, but we'll
likely be capped and available moisture sparse. Moisture return is
really set to pick up late sun as the next upper trof begins
deepening over the plains. Global models are keeping progs of a
highly amplified system as it moves east and drags a strong cold
front in and across the state Sun night/Mon. 41

Marine...
northeasterly flow gradually relaxing today as high pressure over
Texas weakens and slides east. Scec conditions through noon
nearshore quickly relaxing late afternoon well offshore. An area of
disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche has far more convection
with it than this time yesterday morning. NHC thinking that this
system has a 70 percent chance of development as it tracks steadily
northeast towards the northeastern Gulf Coast. Depending on the
development and timing some minor impacts possible over the Upper
Texas coastal waters with slightly larger seas and swells with rip
currents Friday night/Saturday. Moderate to strong onshore flow
develops Sunday night as next big upper trough approaches and low level jet
Cranks up over east TX/AR...probably reaching at least scec. The
associated cold front swings through the waters Monday afternoon
with Small Craft Advisory conditions for 20 knot northerly flow.
45

Aviation...
VFR. Mid/high clouds streaming (nice baroclinic leaf) over the area
from the southwest on the east side of the upper level low near del
Rio that is slowly marching eastward. Expect the high cloudiness to
persist through 20z then clear quickly as the upper dry slot wraps
around. Light northeasterly winds prevailing today becoming calm
tonight.

Weekend outlook possibly some patchy MVFR ceilings generally along
and west of the I-45 corridor Saturday morning and more likely to be
west of a sgr-cxo line followed by warm southwesterly flow. Rain
chances creeping up Sunday with very weak surface trough dipping
down to near cll Saturday night then retreating quickly north as
warm and much more humid air surges into the area Sunday.
45

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 74 51 82 62 88 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (iah) 71 55 81 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 71 67 79 71 85 / 0 10 10 10 10

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel Texas out 20 nm...coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport Texas out 20 nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 6 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island
to Freeport Texas from 20 to 60 nm.

&&

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