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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
344 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Short term [through saturday]...

Surface obs show that the approaching weak cold front is still to
the northwest of our area, and expectations are that it will reach
College Station around or just before dawn, the Houston Metro by
mid-morning, and push offshore and across the Gulf mid-day into
the afternoon. Until then, look for fog to develop ahead of the
front, particularly near the coast, and some more dense fog is
already beginning to crop up around and a little northeast of
Matagorda Bay. Shouldn't be widespread enough to need a dense fog
advisory, buuuuttttt...i'm not sure i'd rule it out yet either.

Taking a glance at the radar up north around the front, it is
pretty sparse except around Texarkana where there are some
showers. Did go with an OH, so slight chance of showers near the
coast...perhaps we'll gin up enough moisture and isentropic lift
closer to the Gulf to manage a couple brief showers. It'd be a
surprise to get anything more than an isolated shower or two,

Beyond that, look for breezier northwest winds with gusts of 15-25
mph (highest in the northwest) to usher in some drier and cooler
air for Saturday, which will be mostly clear and have diminishing



Long term [saturday night through friday]...

A return of onshore winds will begin tomorrow night (saturday night)
as high pressure starts moving off to the east. After a cool morning
on Sunday (lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to the mid
to upper 50s at the coast), strengthening south winds will result in
afternoon highs warming into the 70s across the area. This onshore flow
and associated early December warming trend will continue on into Sunday
night (lows in the 50s/60s) and Monday (highs in the 70s/80s that might
get within a couple degrees of the records for the 9th as winds become
a little more southwesterly). This short warming trend comes to an end
Monday night through Tuesday morning with the passage of the area's
next cold front. Right now, it looks like temperatures will fall back
into the 40s/50s behind the front on Tuesday morning, and the area will
only warm up into the 50s/60s during the day as high pressure begins
to build in from the north. Temperatures will be staying on the cool
side (below normal) for the remainder of the week. Best rain chances
for the week look to come in the Monday night-Tuesday time period in
association with the frontal passage, but we will continue to keep
some rain in the forecast for much of the remainder of the week until
models come into better agreement on the development/strength/timing
of the next trof and associated shortwaves. 42



Most of tonight's fog should be radiation fog over land, but
dewpoints may briefly sneak high enough for a bit of sea fog over
the nearshore waters of the Gulf very late tonight and early this
morning. The cold front expected to push across the waters from
mid- day into the afternoon will bring a very small chance of
showers, but is more likely to just shift winds to northwesterly
and dissipate any fog that manages to hang on that long.

In the wake of the front, northwesterly winds will pick up in
strength and become moderately strong with some higher gusts. With
sustained winds expected to stay underneath 20 knots, will go with
a scec for Matagorda Bay and the Gulf waters. With a not-quite
ideal fetch for winds over Galveston Bay, opted to leave it out
for now. Look for winds to turn northeasterly and diminish on

Beyond that, expect onshore flow to return Sunday, and another
cold front to pass through the area early next week.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 69 46 67 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 74 52 68 50 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 72 57 65 58 69 / 20 0 0 0 0


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...small craft should exercise caution from 11 am CST this morning
through late tonight for the following zones: coastal
waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel Texas out 20
nm...coastal waters from High Island to Freeport Texas out 20
nm...Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport Texas from 20 to 60 nm.

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