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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
608 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Update...
for 00z tafs.

&&

Near term...(tonight)
issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

The dry layer aloft that's been keeping rain from hitting the ground
to our south will finally erode this evening. Some light rain may
clip DeKalb County this evening and overnight. There's only about a
15-20% chance, though. Otherwise, for the rest of our area, skies
will gradually clear from west to east as the system to our south
pushes off to the east. Winds will turn northerly and start to ramp
up a bit early Friday morning. Lows Friday morning will be down in
the 30-35 deg range.

Short term...(friday through Saturday night)
issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

As the low pressure system to our south moves off to the east,
northerly winds pick up on Friday. They shouldn't be too impactful,
but noticeable. Skies will be clearing as well. Shortwave ridging
starts building in as we go into the weekend, starting a gradual
warm-up in temperatures. Friday we will see highs right around 50,
and on Saturday high temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper
50s.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A dry and generally cool weather pattern will continue across the
Tennessee Valley into the first half of next week. A system that
should have brought showers across much of the southeast conus, south of our
area by Sunday morning should be consolidating into a typical East
Coast cyclone. It and effects from this storm should remain over the
more coastal mid Atlantic and NE region, as it moves towards the
Canadian maritime on Mon/Tue.

While this occurs, several clipper type systems forecast to form
over the Pacific northwest and northwest Canada region, will move to the southeast in
general troughing along the East Coast. They should weaken as they
move across the forecast area during the Mon-Tue timeframe, resulting
in more clouds than sun. With the GFS/European model (ecmwf) both only producing
spotty precipitation, stayed with a dry forecast. A continuing northwest
flow, cold air already in place, and more clouds than sky/sun will
keep daily high/low temperatures colder than normal. Highs into Tue
should range from the upper 40s to mid 50s, with lows in the 30s.

After the mid week, high pressure should build east of the region and
bring a southerly flow across the valley. This should help boost
highs closer to seasonable levels by next Wed/Thu, into the upper 50s
to near 60. Normal highs then are around 61. Another stronger system
will bring lower end rain chances to the area next Thursday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 608 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

An overcast altostratus deck will remain in place across the region
this evening, as atmospheric lift strengthens ahead of an approaching
upper-lvl disturbance. Although cloud bases will remain fairly high,
some very light rain will be possible at the terminals, mainly btwn
02-10z/hsv and 03-09z/msl. As a developing surface low related to the
disturbance begins to track northeastward across northern FL,
northerly flow across the region will deepen, with any precip ending
from northwest-to-se prior to 12z. The lower deck of altostratus will also
scatter as this occurs, but should be replaced by a higher/broken
deck of similar clouds which will prevail thru late Friday aftn.
Otherwise, a light north-northeast flow will become established this evening and
steadily increase throughout the night. North-north-northwest winds in the 10g18 knot
range are anticipated tomorrow.

&&

Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.

&&

$$

Near term...McCoy
short term...McCoy
long term...rsb

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