Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 khun 130450 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1050 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

for 06z tafs.


Near term...(tonight)
issued at 922 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

In wake of the Arctic front that passed through the Tennessee Valley
early this morning, bitter cold air continues to filter into the
region. A strong ridge of of high pressure has promoted a clear sky
and as a result temperatures have fallen quickly into the lower 20s
as of 03z. With dewpoints in the 8 to 13 degree range, expect
temperatures to fall off at least another 5-6 degrees and have
lowered our temperature forecast by a couple of degrees to account
for this latest trend. This would potentially allow our record low of
16 degrees to be tied at khsv (1911) and break the old record of 18
degrees at kmsl (1920). The only mitigating factor that will prevent
US from completely bottoming out will be a persistent 3-5 kt
northerly wind that may help to keep the boundary layer somewhat
mixed. A broken patch of stratus was also noted along the plateau
region of Tennessee, but expect these clouds to stay out of the
region (clipping only Franklin County, Tennessee and potentially far NE
Jackson County, al). Overall, a great night to stay indoors -- and
be sure to bring your pets inside!

Short term...(wednesday through thursday)
issued at 243 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Upper-level flow becomes more zonal midweek, with high pressure
shifting off to the east. Building geopotential heights and weak
southerly flow on the west side of the surface high will help to
bring temperatures back up into the mid-40s on Wednesday and around
50 on Thursday.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 243 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Another upper-level trough will swing down, impacting the
southeast late this week. Right now model consensus keeps the precip
just to our south. This system kind of runs into a low pressure
system moving east out of Texas, which will help to block the cold
air from getting this far south. Not anticipating much change in the
way of temperatures later this week, though stronger high pressure
moving in from the Desert Southwest will likely bring temperatures
back up into the upper 50s, maybe even low 60s this weekend.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal underneath a clear sky
through the period. North-northeast flow around 4-6 kts will continue for the
remainder of the night, before veering to the east-southeast/southeast during the day


Hun watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...amp.24
short term...McCoy
long term...McCoy

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations