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fxus63 kict 142351 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
551 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 241 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Currently have shortwave trough lifting over the northeast Continental U.S.
With additional upper energy coming onshore over central California. At
the surface, cold front extends from the Ohio Valley into
southeast OK.

Models currently agree on a lead piece of energy moving out of The
Four Corners region tonight and into Kansas by Sun morning. Ahead of
this impulse, isentropic lift will steadily increase tonight and
continue to ramp up into Sun afternoon. Still looking like we will
be lacking cloud ice across southern Kansas through most of sun. This
should result in freezing drizzle for areas generally south of
Highway 50, starting as early as a couple hours after sunrise.
Further north, saturation should be higher, allowing for snow to
be the predominant precip type. Surface temps will obviously be
crucial sun for ice accumulation and feel confident that most of
the area will be within a degree or two of 32 degrees. Even for
those areas that climb above 32, elevated surfaces will still be
cold enough for light ice formation. Current thinking is the most
likely time frame for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
will be during the day sun, with a decrease in coverage possible
sun evening. Further north, north of Highway 50, periods of light
snow will be possible sun, with a couple inches of accumulation
possible.

Models continue the trend of this system coming out in two phases,
with the main vort Max moving across the area late Sun night
through Mon. By 12z Mon both European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on this feature
moving out across the Texas/OK panhandles and sliding across northern
OK/southern Kansas during the day Mon. This piece of energy will
bring our best chance to see a more traditional deformation zone
banded snow. Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS set this band up after 12z
Mon, generally along the Kansas Turnpike. Woldn't be shocked if this
band produced a quick couple inches of snow during the day Mon,
and maybe the Wichita and south central Kansas best chance for
accumulating snow. NAM is currently the outlier with regards to
quantitative precipitation forecast and that seems reasonable. However, the 12z European model (ecmwf) did come in
quite a big higher with quantitative precipitation forecast compared to the GFS with the European model (ecmwf)
being fairly consistent with this solution the last few runs. So
not ready to completely discount some of these European model (ecmwf) qpf values
just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on.

Did not change much in the way of snow or ice accumulations with
generally 2-4 inch range for snow and less than a quarter inch of
ice for southern Kansas.

Long term...(tuesday through saturday)
issued at 241 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Still looking like upper ridging will slide over the area for Tue
through Thu, shutting off precip chances. Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS move
another shortwave out into the plains by Fri. However, the GFS is
much further north with this wave compared to the European model (ecmwf). With
confidence so low, will keep pops out of the forecast at this
time.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 546 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

**winter weather and low clouds to impact aviation through monday**

In the near-term (ie. The next 6-12 hours), low clouds should
gradually fill back in across the area with widespread MVFR/IFR
cigs developing after 15/06z. At the same time, some short-term
model guidance suggests wintry precipitation may begin to develop
in a west to east band as the low clouds move in/develop. There is
some uncertainty in how quick this area of precip will develop,
so for now I have the precip delayed a short time after the
arrival of the lower clouds. This may need to be adjusted in later
forecasts. Precipitation type later tonight/Sunday looks to be a
mix of snow and fzdz. Precipitation may decrease in coverage some
late in the day Sunday as a brief period of drier air tries to
work in. For now, I kept low cigs in the tafs as models may be
overdoing the amount of low-level drying.

Extended outlook: an upper level disturbance is just now moving
ashore across the Pacific northwest and will be the main feature of
concern Sunday night into Monday, likely bringing a band of
heavier snow to a portion of the area. Where this band of snow
develops...significant reductions to visible will be possible at
times, especially Monday.

Martin

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 28 33 21 34 / 20 50 50 50
Hutchinson 25 30 18 34 / 20 50 50 50
Newton 26 31 19 32 / 20 60 50 50
Eldorado 28 33 21 32 / 20 60 50 50
Winfield-kwld 29 36 23 35 / 10 40 40 40
Russell 21 29 16 34 / 40 60 40 50
Great Bend 23 29 16 34 / 30 60 40 40
Salina 22 30 17 33 / 50 70 40 50
McPherson 24 30 18 32 / 30 60 50 50
Coffeyville 30 39 26 36 / 10 50 60 50
Chanute 28 35 23 32 / 10 60 60 60
Iola 27 34 23 31 / 20 60 60 60
Parsons-kppf 29 38 25 33 / 10 50 60 50

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
ksz032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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