Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kilm 201701
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
101 PM EDT sun Oct 20 2019
cooler and drier high pressure will move in behind Post-
tropical cyclone Nestor as it races off to the northeast through
tonight. A cold front will bring a chance of showers Tuesday.
Rain chances will increase again late in the week ahead of a
Near term /through Monday/...
cooler and drier high pressure will continue to build in behind
cold front extending from Post-tropical low Nestor as it
continues to track off to the northeast through tonight. A few
light sprinkles right along the shallow frontal boundary will
diminish as the front tracks off to the east leaving behind
shallow cool and moist layer. The gusty west-northwest downslope flow
should help to break up the clouds a bit, but soundings and
moisture profile show a steep frontal inversion keeping very
shallow moist layer across the area tonight. This is always
tough to break and tough to forecast how long it will last. Will
show some breaks from SW to NE as drier air wraps around the
back side of low through late this aftn. But will also maintain
fairly widespread fog/stratus around the area for tonight and
possibly lasting through much of the day on Monday as cooler and
drier air settles in with shallow residual moisture socked in
under inversion. Cold air advection behind front will keep an overall cooling
trend in temps with most temps right around 60 by this eve. The
overnight lows will be tougher, with most models showing a
decent break in clouds through the first part of the night
allowing temps to drop and then stratus layer should help level
them off with some shallow cold air advection continuing.
Lingering shallow moisture into Monday will maintain some low
stratus but should see increasing sunshine on Monday. Temps
will be in the lower 50s or so tonight and highs Monday in the
low to mid 70s.
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
the story for the short term will be the cold front moving
across Tuesday. Little change in guidance with regards to timing
and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts which are lat Tuesday afternoon and quantitative precipitation forecast less
than a quarter of an inch. Highs ahead of the front will be into
the lower to possibly even the middle 80s. A bit cooler
Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s as
opposed to mostly 60s Tuesday morning.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
extended remains somewhat unsettled mainly toward the middle
and latter part of the period. Guidance continues to struggle
with the evolution of either a slow cutoff low to the west or a
somewhat deep but open trough. The best approach is to maintain
the broad brush approach to pops for several days. No changes to
the temperature forecast.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
a secondary boundary will reach the coast soon, with a wind shift to
the west. Near VFR at the coast, but solidly MVFR inland. Tonight,
winds diminish to near calm. Models are advertising fog,
particularly inland, however confidence is moderate. Monday, some
MVFR ceilings left over with a northeast wind. Look for MVFR and
possibly IFR ceilings to hang in there most of the forecast
Extended outlook...chance for early morning fog/stratus Tuesday
morning. Cold front expected to move through Tuesday
afternoon/evening with VFR conditions following.
Small Craft Advisory in effect through this afternoon in the
wake of Post-tropical low, remnants of Nestor, as seas are
worked up taking some time to subside. For later tonight and
Monday winds and seas drop appreciably as weak high pressure
builds in. For the midweek and late week period, no advisory
flags are anticipated. Wind directions will be somewhat
changeable as a front moves across late Tuesday with a return
flow later in the week and northeast winds in between.
SC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for scz054-
High rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for scz054.
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz106-
High rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz106-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for amz250-