Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kilm 140543
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
a cold front will bring showers this morning, followed by brief
drying as high pressure builds south. Rain chances to increase
late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front lifts north. Cooler
and drier air is expected Thursday into next weekend.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
the front shifts east tonight, but the main forcing mechanism
leading to widespread showers will be an approaching mid-level
vort Max in conjunction with increasing low/mid-level moisture
profiles. Capped thunder chances at slight chance for now, due
to meager instability and lack of convective development thus
far this aftn. The rain pushes into coastal areas after
midnight, before slowly dissipating Mon morning as patchy fog
Very dry mid levels move in from the west daytime Mon, so kept
any mention of pcpn for Mon/Mon night right at the coast and
offshore, closer to where the frontal boundary will reside. Temps
make it into the low 80s Mon, but relative humidity will fall into the 45-55% range
inland areas during the aftn.
Short term /Tuesday night/...
warm front will be lifting north into the area late Tuesday.
Forecast soundings show that deep layer moistening holds off until
evening meaning that rainfall may be slow to arrive before Sundown.
But arrive it does Tuesday night, possibly with enough vigor for
most places to average 0.5-1.00" of rainfall in total. Tuesday will
be quite seasonable despite the increasing clouds while Tuesday night
will remain quite mild in the warm advection.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
rain may linger into midday Wednesday but cool, dry air will be
advecting in from the west by afternoon. In fact if the sun comes
out quickly enough it may grow quite breezy as mixing deepens and
the boundary layer comes to include some 30kt winds. Cold advection
continues into the late week period holding temperatures below
climatology especially Thursday where highs may stay in the 60s and
lows dip into the 40s. Moderation should get underway on Friday as
high pressure moves in and the cold air advection shuts off.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
occasional 2sm rain showers through 9-10z as axis of showers and isolated
tstms moves through, then lingering lighter showers through 15z
before an afternoon clearing and drying trend. A few gusts from
west-west-southwest to 21 knots near tstms but isolated or localized in coverage
early in taf cycle. VFR conditions to expand in coverage aft
Extended outlook...rain chances and MVFR probabilities increase
late Tuesday through Wednesday associated with a warm front.
south-southwest winds increase to ~15 kt this evening just ahead of a frontal
boundary, becoming westerly Mon morning at 10-15 kt, then veer to
the northwest/north Mon night. Seas will be predominantly 2-3 ft during this
timeframe, with some 4 footers possible out 20 nm tonight in
association with increasing wind waves. In addition, long period east
swell continues at 1-2 ft.
Tuesday starts with light NE flow that will gradually veer as a warm
front approaches from the south. As the boundary lifts through
Tuesday night the warm sector will present a moderately strong wind
field that could deteriorate winds into advisory levels by
Wednesday. A sharp turn to northwest occurs Wednesday night with cold
frontal passage, though wind fields will be weakening overall.
As high pressure builds behind the boundary on Friday winds further
lighten and turn to the northeast.
NC...coastal flood advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for