Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kilm 190721
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321 am EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
the remnants of tropical storm Nestor will move across the area
rapidly late this afternoon and overnight. Tranquil conditions
will develop later Sunday and Monday. A cold front will move
quickly across the region Tuesday with quiet conditions
following once again.
Near term /through Sunday/...
main forecast concern for the next 24-36 hours is the approach of
the storm remnants of tropical storm Nestor that will bring heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance for an isolated tornado.
Cloud cover is expected to increase through today as chances for
precipitation ramp up late this morning and early this afternoon
across the region. Heaviest rainfall expected to start late this
afternoon for SC and this evening for the entire area with wind
gusts as high as 30 mph. Tornado chances increase for the area
overnight, but mainly expected an isolated chance for development.
Rain begins to exit Sunday morning and winds will diminish. Sky will
begin to clear late Sunday morning into the afternoon with warming
temps as a result of influx of warmer air from the south.
Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/...
quiet conditions in the wake of the remnants of Nestor for the
short term period. Weak high pressure will build in with a
southwest flow aloft. Highs will be in the middle 70s or so
Monday with lows in the 50s Monday morning warming to the 60s
Tuesday morning as a broad southwest flow develops at the
surface ahead of the next system.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the cold front remains on track for Tuesday as do the chance
pops. Probably not a quantitative precipitation forecast Windfall with the quick moving and
somewhat moisture limited system. The airmass following the
front isn't necessarily cold but a slight reset of temperatures
with dry conditions can be expected midweek. The end of the
period is beginning to look interesting as the GFS paints a very
unsettled picture with a deep and slow moving mid level trough
while the European model (ecmwf) has the system but a little weaker and more
progressive. With the uncertainty, maintained the chance pops
for late week into the weekend.
Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
clear skies overnight will rapidly become cloudy near sunrise from
SW to NE across the area. No fog expected tonight as easterly winds
increase ahead of what will be Post-tropical storm Nestor. Sub-VFR
conditions will develop during the afternoon hours with heavy rain
and thunderstorms possible creating widespread IFR conditions before
the end of the period. Winds will remain easterly throughout the
period increasing in speed during the afternoon to between 15-25 mph
with gusts near 30 mph; higher gusts along the coast. While low-
level wind shear was kept out of the tafs for this issuance, there
is a chance for ws020/15060kt, especially along and near the coast
in the 24 to 30 hour time-frame.
Extended outlook...rain, gusty winds, and IFR/MVFR conditions likely
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Chance for early morning
fog/stratus next Monday and Tuesday mornings. Cold front expected to
move through Tuesday afternoon/evening.
main concern for the next 24-36 hours is a Gale Warning in effect
for the passing storm remnants of tropical storm Nestor.
Conditions will deteriorate offshore through tonight with increasing
onshore flow this afternoon becoming southeast to S up to 25 to 25 kts
through tonight. Seas will increase up to 7 to 12 ft by tonight with
rough seas expected as remnants of tropical storm Nestor makes its
way up through the Carolinas. The storm will track up just inland
maintaining a strong on shore push through tonight before it begins
to track off to the NE leaving an offshore flow toward Sunday
morning with the beginning of improving marine conditions.
Changeable conditions for the marine community for next week.
Initially an offshore flow following the storm will prevail with
speeds 10-15 knots. A more pronounced southwest flow ahead of a
cold front Tuesday will see speeds probably on the lower end of
a 15- 20 knot range. A modest offshore flow will once again
develop in the wake of the front. Significant seas will be
generally 2-4 feet.
SC...beach hazards statement through this evening for scz054-056.
High rip current risk through this evening for scz054-056.
NC...high rip current risk through this evening for ncz110.
Marine...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 am EDT Sunday for