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fxus62 kilm 201027 
afdilm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
628 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

Synopsis...
quiet weather conditions will develop later today into Monday as
the remnants of Nestor race off to the northeast. A cold front
will bring a chance of showers Tuesday. Rain chances will
increase again late in the week ahead of a cold front.

&&

Near term /through Monday/...
strongly forced convective line at least from a wind standpoint
continues to roll through the area. Forecast challenge is the
ending of the activity and a little later the clearing line.
High resolution guidance shows most of the activity exiting
stage left by 12-13 UTC with this the far northeast corner.
Clouds will linger for some time but sunshine should break out
from southwest to northeast this afternoon although the remnants
of Nestor will lag well behind. Tonight and Monday should see
clear and relatively mild conditions with lows in the lower 50s
or so and highs Monday in the middle 70s.



&&

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
the story for the short term will be the cold front moving
across Tuesday. Little change in guidance with regards to timing
and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts which are lat Tuesday afternoon and quantitative precipitation forecast less
than a quarter of an inch. Highs ahead of the front will be into
the lower to possibly even the middle 80s. A bit cooler
Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s as
opposed to mostly 60s Tuesday morning.



&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
extended remains somewhat unsettled mainly toward the middle
and latter part of the period. Guidance continues to struggle
with the evolution of either a slow cutoff low to the west or a
somewhat deep but open trough. The best approach is to maintain
the broad brush approach to pops for several days. No changes to
the temperature forecast.



&&

Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
last band of convection has moved through. IFR ceilings will last a
couple of hours with improving conditions after. NAM time height
indicates near IFR ceilings will persist for much of the morning,
probably scattering this afternoon. Gusty south winds will become
northwesterly later this afternoon with VFR conditions expected this
evening.

Extended outlook...chance for early morning fog/stratus Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Cold front expected to move through Tuesday
afternoon/evening with VFR conditions following.

&&

Marine...
gale conditions underway this morning with only a few more hours
to go as the strong wind fields associated with the remnants of
Nestor move across. Have maintained the warning until 8 am. A
Small Craft Advisory will be needed for several hours in its
wake as seas are worked up taking some time to subside. For
later tonight and Monday winds and seas drop appreciably as weak
high pressure builds in. For the midweek and late week period,
no advisory flags are anticipated. Wind directions will be
somewhat changeable as a front moves across late Tuesday with a
return flow later in the week and northeast winds in between.



&&

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...beach hazards statement from 6 am EDT this morning through
this evening for scz054-056.
High rip current risk from 6 am EDT this morning through this
evening for scz054.
NC...beach hazards statement from 6 am EDT this morning through
this evening for ncz106-108-110.
High rip current risk from 6 am EDT this morning through this
evening for ncz106-108-110.
Marine...Gale Warning until 8 am EDT this morning for amz250-252-254-
256.

&&

$$
Synopsis...shk
near term...mck/shk

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