Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 060924
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
424 am EST Fri Dec 6 2019
a cold front will push southeast across the region today, leading
to a chance of rain across parts of the area. High pressure and
a drier, seasonable air mass will build into the region for the
weekend. A low pressure system will lift up across the Great
Lakes region Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance
of precipitation to start off the work week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
mid level clouds along the leading edge of the better isentropic
lift have overspread our area from the west this morning.
We are seeing some returns on radar out of the mid deck, but
with the low levels still relatively dry, think at best we may
just be seeing a few sprinkles reaching the ground. The clear
skies earlier tonight allowed for temperatures to drop below
freezing in places, but as the clouds have moved in, they have
or should generally climb above freezing through daybreak. At
any rate, surface temperatures are above freezing, so any pcpn
that does reach the ground through mid morning, should not be an
A cold front currently stretching from northern Illinois into
central Missouri will push southeast across our area through
the day. As it does, a weak surface wave will ride east along
it, helping to pull some deeper moisture northeastward into our
area. This will lead to a developing chance of light rain
across our southwest through mid morning, working east into
southeast portions of our area through late morning into early
afternoon. Pcpn should taper off fairly quickly though from the
northwest as the cold front moves through and some drier air
begins to work in behind it. Will generally allow for slight
chance pops across central portions of our area later this
morning, increasing to categorical across our far south. Skies
will be mainly cloudy into this afternoon, before some clearing
tries to work in from the northwest later in the day. Highs
today will range from the lower 40s in the northwest to the
upper 40s in the southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
surface high pressure will build east across the region tonight
into Saturday. This will lead to mostly clear skies and dry
conditions. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs on
Saturday in the low to mid 40s.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
extended period will start quiet, but quickly tend toward warmer and
wetter than normal from late in the weekend through Tuesday morning.
This period will be followed by a dry and much cooler than normal
period through the middle of next week.
Saturday night into Sunday begins with surface high pressure exiting
the region to the east, with low level flow becoming southerly. Deep
moisture will increase as elevated flow will become southwesterly,
leading to increasing clouds through Sunday and a chance of rain
late. Highs will peak in the low 50s.
Monday will be warmest day in the extended, with rain increasing as
a strong cold front pushes west to east through the forecast area.
Frontal timing remains rather uncertain with this package. In
addition, 00z gefs plumes show a wide range of quantitative precipitation forecast associated with
the system on Monday, from just over a tenth in the deterministic
GFS, to the gefs ensemble mean around three quarters of an inch. 00z
eps also shows the higher end amounts. Based on this, bumped up
blended quantitative precipitation forecast to near wpc values.
Ensemble data as well as cons raw blend have frontal timing around
12z on Tuesday. This is a few hours later than nbm fropa. This
timing question will play a role in an uncertain diurnal temperature
range during the day Tuesday. Either way, temperatures will likely
fall after the front passes, leading to a transition from light rain
to light snow by late in the day. GFS model soundings have rather
shallow moisture in the low levels, with addition seeder layer
aloft, and dry air between. Wouldn't be surprised to see light snow
reaching the ground through this dry layer Tuesday afternoon, with
very minor accumulations.
Very cold high pressure builds in on Wednesday with clearing skies.
This continues into Thursday as the high moves just east of the
area. Clouds will likely increase late on Thursday as general trend
in the guidance shows deep low pressure approaching from the
southwest. Will continue to track this feature as guidance shows
differences with potentially significant impacts to regional weather
into next weekend.
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
clear skies are in place across the area early this morning but
mid level clouds are quickly pushing in from the west. This is
ahead of a weak wave of low pressure that will pass off to our
south through this afternoon. As the low levels moisten up
toward daybreak, cigs will drop into MVFR category through mid
morning with showers developing across mainly southern portions
of our area. This could lead to some MVFR vsby restrictions at
mainly kcvg/kluk and possibly Kiln later this morning into early
afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest through
mid to late afternoon, leading to a decreasing chance of
showers and improving sky conditions. VFR conditions are expected
Outlook...MVFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday
night through Tuesday. Gusty winds are possible Monday night