Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 162037
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
337 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019
high pressure to the northeast will bring continued dry and cool
conditions into Sunday. An upper level system will swing across the
region Monday into Tuesday, offering an increase in clouds. Temperatures
increase to near normal levels by mid week as upper level ridging builds
in behind the disturbance. The next good chance for rain will occur
Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
surface high pressure to continue to build across the northern
Great Lakes to a position centered over New England by Sunday
morning. Clouds that developed in the low level cold air advection field will
continue to decrease in coverage giving way to mostly clear sky
conditions early this evening.
High level clouds will increase from the west late tonight ahead
of the next trof. Based on light winds and mainly clear skies
for a good duration tonight, have adjusted overnight lows
slightly below nbm values. Forecast lows to range from near
20 over west central Ohio to the mid 20s in northeast Kentucky.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
middle level flow backs southwesterly as a trof develops over
the MS valley Sunday. Mid and high level clouds to increase,
especially during the afternoon ahead of this system. In warm air advection
pattern temperatures to warm up some but still remain around
5 degrees below normal. Sundays forecast highs to range from
the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
Mid level trof to track southeast into the Ohio Valley Sunday
night. Due to lack of moisture and forcing will only allow for
an increase in clouds. Forecast lows expected to be close to 30.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
throughout the day on Monday, a weak upper level shortwave
progresses through the Ohio Valley within a much broader longwave
trough over the eastern US. With moisture lacking and overall
forcing fairly weak, dry weather is anticipated for the area.
Another shortwave moves through on Tuesday, but similar to Monday,
the lack of strong lift and sufficient moisture leads to a dry
forecast, but extensive cloud cover keeps temperatures below average.
For the middle of the week, an amplifying ridge stretches northward
into the Great Lakes, opening up a brief opportunity for near normal
temperatures for Wednesday to even above normal on Thursday. The
warm up is a result of a developing area of low pressure that moves
into the Great Lakes on Thursday. Moisture and warm air advection
promotes the development of showers starting as soon as Thursday
morning. There are some operation model differences between the
European model (ecmwf)/GFS, but eps/gefs means are in better agreement with a fairly
wet Thursday. Lingering showers are possible Friday morning, but
high pressure quickly builds in from the west, leading to drier
weather to end the week.
Temperatures to start the period are below average with the warm up
across the middle of the week ushering in near to above normal
temperatures. Cold front moves through during the day on Thursday
with below normal temperatures to return on Friday.
Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/...
surface high pressure to build across the northern Great Lakes
today. Stratocumulus clouds which developed overnight in the
low level cold air advection over central Ohio will continue affect the
northern taf sites -- offering MVFR conditions through early
Elsewhere, scattered shallow cumulus clouds will develop thru
the aftn. These low clouds will scatter out and dissipate early
this evening, leaving just scatted high level clouds.
Low level east to southeast flow will be favorable for fog
development at kluk. Have a period of IFR vsby restrictions
toward sunrise Sunday. Otherwise, some brief MVFR vsby
restrictions are possible at kcvg and Kiln.
Fog will improve Sunday morning with VFR conditions thru the
remainder of the fcst as mid and high level clouds increase
during the day.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Monday.