Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 191937
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
337 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
retreating high pressure centered in the northeast will produce
dry weather and above normal temperatures this evening through
the day on Sunday. A strong storm system approaching from the
west will move through on Monday afternoon through Monday
night, increasing the shower and thunderstorm risk. Cooler air
will return to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday behind the cold front.
Near term /through tonight/...
surface high pressure well to the east is producing light
southeasterly return flow across much of the region this
afternoon. Weak warm air advection has commenced in this flow
through the day, with temperatures warming into the mid 60s to
Models Show Low level moisture increasing significantly late
this evening through the overnight across the County Warning Area as winds shift
to the southwest. Accompanying the moisture, clouds will likely
increase as well, starting in the mid levels in the early
morning hours Sunday. This, along with the warm air advection, will keep
overnight lows up.
Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
on Sunday, the County Warning Area will be in an area of relatively light
southerly flow between weak high pressure to the east and a
developing surface low pressure system in the northern plains
states. Despite increased low level moisture and corresponding
partly cloudy skies through the day, expect highs warming to near
70 into the low 70s, which is keeping with guidance. Dry
forecast seems reasonable based on a lack of a forcing mechanism
in place to produce organized precipitation. Clouds begin to
increase ahead of the incoming frontal system late Sunday night
into early Monday morning, with slight chance pops by daybreak
on Monday morning.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
potent cold front will be pushing through Monday and Monday night.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and
ahead of the front, so kept categorical pops as suggested by model
blend. Strong moisture transport and lift will result in some heavy
showers, allowing for partial drought relief. Ample wind shear could
help organize a few strong to severe thunderstorms even in a low
instability environment, with damaging winds the main threat.
Drier weather will return Tuesday on a breezy west to northwest
flow. The dry period may last through Thursday as high pressure
gradually makes its way across the southeast Continental U.S.. shower chances return
Friday and Saturday in the moist southerly flow ahead of the next
After Monday when highs are forecast to reach the 70s in most
locations, a cooling trend will be noted under cold advection and
cloud cover. Expect mid to late afternoon readings to be mainly in
the near normal low to mid 60s for the rest of the period.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
high pressure will provide generally VFR conditions through
this evening. Model consensus shows increasing low level
moisture up through 800 mb with southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching frontal system. MVFR clouds may develop in this
moisture field with lift after sunrise on Sunday before breaking
up and lifting to VFR by afternoon.
Otherwise, gradient winds in the 5-7 knot range today weakening
tonight and remaining rather slack on Sunday.
Fog not likely tonight compared to last night due to increasing
clouds and warm air advection in the low levels.
Outlook...MVFR conditions and gusty winds are likely Monday
into Monday night.