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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
350 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
a cold front is edging into central Illinois this afternoon,
bringing some showers across the region. However, the central
portion of the current line of showers is weakening/dissipating
as it moves into drier air.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
the cold front moving into central Illinois this afternoon is
bringing some showers to the region, but dry air in place is
helping to erode the moisture. The showers are more scattered in
west central Illinois, though more moisture is surging into the
region from the southwest, along the southern half of the precip.
Clouds are increasing into the overnight, not only limiting The
Drop in minimums for the morning, but also trapping some low level
moisture...prolonging the cloud cover a little time-wise. Models
have been a little aggressive with the low cigs overnight, as well
as the mention of fog. That low level moisture contributing to the
fog may be compromised slightly by the lack of enhancement from
widespread rain fall this afternoon. However, a stretch of
dewpoints in the 50s is right behind the precip...and with a
westerly component to the surface winds at least through 07-09z or
so... some moisture advection can be anticipated tonight. After a
patchy fog morning... clearing skies should dominate the latter
half of tomorrow, with high temperatures similar to today in the
mid to upper 60s... and lower 70s south of I-70.


Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
as the weekend comes to a close, a strong wave moves into the
northern rockies, and dives into the plains. This upper wave
develops a strong surface low that will bring the next round of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Precipitation will move
into central Illinois in the early hours of Monday, and dominate
Monday as the front moves through. The low will pass to the north,
so the southern half of the state may actually get to see some
clearing Monday night and a temperature drop as a result. Tuesdays
highs drop to the mid 50s as a Cool Point in the forecast. A slow
warming trend kicks back in as the flow aloft shifts to zonal
through mid week, then back to southwesterly by the end of the
week into next weekend ahead of the next system.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
not much in the way of changes in the forecast as a cold front
moves into the area this afternoon. Winds are generally light
along the boundary in the pressure lull... and may see some
variability to the direction through the speed should remain under
10 kts throughout the pd. Low clouds associated with the boundary
moves in with some vcsh for pia. Models are trending drier as the
showers fall apart on radar. Concern for the low cigs and vis drop
forecasted for the morning if the showers do not materialize. Next
run may have a different morning forecast altogether Post 10z.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


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