Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kind 142247
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
647 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
the aviation section has been updated below.
issued at 342 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Central Indiana will remain under the influence of high pressure
through tonight. However, the pattern will shift tomorrow as a
frontal system moves through the area, bringing shower and
thunderstorm chances. In the wake of that though, dry weather will
return for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The
next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Saturday
night, and the system could be strong enough to produce some
strong to severe thunderstorms late in the weekend/early next
week. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will fluctuate
from above normal Tuesday to below normal in the wake of the cold
front around mid-week, then back to above normal late in the
Near term /tonight/...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
High pressure over the eastern third of the U.S. Will keep
conditions dry through tonight across central Indiana. Elsewhere,
a surface frontal system and trailing upper low will push farther
into the upper Midwest overnight. This will be the next area of
focus in the short term period. The only concern tonight will be
frost potential (mainly northeast), but confidence is not high
enough to include mention in the forecast at this time. Overnight
lows are expected to be in the upper 30s/low 40s with 5 mph winds.
Short term /tomorrow through Thursday/...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Focus in the short term will be on the aforementioned surface
frontal system and trailing upper low. Rain showers will enter the
northwest/west portions of central Indiana around mid-morning
Tuesday with a warm front. As forcing strengthens through the
afternoon with the trailing cold front, so will the chances for
thunderstorms. Daytime highs with the strong southerly winds and
warm front will top off in the low to mid 70s. Wind gusts will be
up to 25 mph. So, showers and thunderstorms will move through the
forecast area from west to east throughout the day Tuesday,
eventually ending Tuesday night. In the wake of the cold front,
temperatures will fall into the low 40s on Tuesday night and will
not recover on Wednesday or Thursday. Daytime highs both days
will only be in the 50s with overnight lows in the 30s. Dry
weather can be expected though for Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure becomes established again over the region.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Cool temperatures and some frost potential will be in place for
Thursday night/early Friday morning under building high pressure.
Southwesterly flow will develop Friday and this should bring a
warming trend to the area, with highs back in the 70s for
Saturday. A strong upper low moving across the central U.S. And
into the Great Lakes will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the area from Saturday night Onward. Will be
monitoring the strength of this system as it could bring multiple
rounds of rainfall or perhaps even severe weather potential for
late in the weekend/early next week. Still a good amount of
variety in the timing/track/strength of the low that far out
though, so for now just included the nbm chances for rain with
slight chances for thunder and will refine later.
Aviation /discussion for the 150000z tafs/...
issued at 645 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
No significant cloud and unrestricted visibility expected at the
terminals tonight. Surface winds at or below 6 kts for most of the
night will become 130-150 degrees at 4-7 kts by sunrise Tuesday.