Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kjan 142019 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
319 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Discussion...
tonight and tuesday: dynamic weather will take shape across the area
during this time frame. Presently, expansive rain shield has
developed from east TX, across central la and into southern MS north
of the coastal baroclinic zone as low to mid level winds have
backed in response to storm system digging over the Desert
Southwest. As the coastal boundary moves inland and winds
increase, strong isentropic ascent will result in a band of heavy
rain setting up along and north of Interstate 20 and south of Hwy
82 late tonight and into Tuesday. Rainfall may be especially heavy
considering the depth of moisture with pws at or above 2.25" as
the feed continues from the tropical system near baja. Model
sooundings are also indicating transient pockets of maul moving
through the precipitation axis which will result in periodic
convective bursts of heavier rainfall. Will issue flash flood advisory along the
axis of heaviest expected precipitation.

Also of concern by Tuesday afternoon will the severe potential over
the south. The warm sector will surge inland after sunrise with mid
70s dewpoints moving into portions of northeast la and southern MS
by noon. Breaks in the cloud cover in these area will send
temperatures up to around 80. While lapse rates are not that
impressive, these temp/dewpoint combinations will result in ml CAPES
around 1500 j/kg. This along with bulk shear values of 20-25 knots
at 0-1km and 40-50 knots at 0-6km may result in a few severe storms,
provided some low level lifting mechanism can be found./Gg/

Wednesday through the weekend: a shower and/or thunderstorm can't
be ruled out Wednesday early morning in southern parts of the
region as lingering convection from thunderstorms the evening
before clears out. A cold front will be pushing through the region
Wednesday morning and will bring drier weather Wednesday
afternoon through Friday. Along with this cold front, a mid-level
ridge will build in over the western part of the Continental U.S. Which will
also help aid in drier weather during this time thanks to
subsident air and building high pressure.

There will be a return of moisture for the weekend as the then old
front lifts north slightly and bring rain chances to the region for
the weekend. A few showers will be possible both Saturday and
Sunday. Highs look to range from the mid 60s in the north to low
70s in the south Wednesday and Thursday. As for lows Thursday-
Friday, values look to range in the mid to upper 40s in the
northern half and near or at 50 degrees in the south. Highs
Friday-Sunday will warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s./Jne/

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion: VFR conditions at most locations early in the
period will slowly deteriorate through the afternoon and evening
as rain develops over the area. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
this evening will lower to IFR after midnight and continue through
much of the remainder of the period. Some MVFR conditions may
begin returning from the south by the 15/18z./Gg/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 65 77 64 70 / 82 89 70 19
Meridian 64 75 66 72 / 83 94 76 22
Vicksburg 66 78 62 69 / 79 89 70 16
Hattiesburg 66 82 69 76 / 44 77 80 36
Natchez 67 81 65 69 / 37 85 82 30
Greenville 63 73 56 65 / 80 85 48 6
Greenwood 63 72 57 67 / 74 85 50 7

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from 3 am CDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
for msz034>046.

La...Flash Flood Watch from 3 am CDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
for laz007>009.

Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch from 3 am CDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
for arz074-075.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations