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fxus62 kjax 142012 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
412 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Near term [through tuesday]...isolated showers over se GA this
afternoon will increase late tonight and Tuesday as energy aloft
approches in a fast zonal flow. Surface cold front over se GA will
provide a focus for rainfall as moisture increases...with 1-2
inches possible across our northern counties in se GA through
Tuesday. Isolated strong storms are possible during the afternoon
as shear increases though instability will be limited. High
temperatures will be kept mostly in the 70s across se GA Tuesday
afternoon due to clouds and rain with 80s across NE FL.

Short term [tuesday night through Thursday night]...front will
lift north Tuesday night as a surface wave develops to the west
and tracks NE. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue
over se GA Tuesday night and Wednesday...while spreading se into
NE FL on Wednesday as upper low over the northern plains moves to
the East Coast amplifying an upper trough. Rain will end Wednesday
evening as the cold front pushes south of the area. Clearing and
cooler conditions for Thursday with lower humidity as high
pressure builds in from the NW.

Long term [friday through monday]...Friday will be another fair
day with near average temperatures and low humidity. High clouds
will increase across NE FL during the day as an upper shortwave
trough approaches from the FL Panhandle. Isentropic lift will
increase as a surface low tracks by to our NW while an upper low
moves into the central U.S. Amplifying the upper flow. This will
bring increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday through Monday. Near average temperatures Friday and
Saturday will increase along with humidity for Sunday and Monday.


[through 18z tuesday]

A few showers popping up on the old frontal boundary to the west
of ssi that may push into the terminal there through 21z with
diurnal heating so have added brief MVFR tempo group there,
otherwise expect VFR with diurnal cu with ceilings around 4000 ft and
light winds at other taf sites. Expect loss of low cloud decks at
sunset with just increasing mid/high clouds aloft at all taf
sites, then with increasing rain chances along the frontal
boundary across southeast Georgia towards morning and have added in MVFR ceilings
with showers at ssi from 12z Onward, and not starting shower
activity in Florida taf sites until around 15-16z time frame. For now
thunder chances remain low so have left out of terminals for now.


Marine...a stalled frontal boundary will remain near the
Georgia waters through Tuesday before lifting north of the waters
as a warm front Tuesday night. A strong cold front will cross our
local waters Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the frontal passage followed by northwesterly winds in
the wake of the front Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds and
seas will increase Tuesday night through Wednesday night to near
advisory conditions. Winds and seas will subside Thursday through
Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Amg 67 77 68 80 52 / 40 90 70 60 0
ssi 71 77 73 82 60 / 40 70 60 60 0
jax 70 83 71 86 60 / 20 50 30 50 10
sgj 71 82 71 85 66 / 10 20 20 40 20
gnv 68 85 71 85 62 / 10 30 30 50 20
ocf 68 87 71 85 66 / 10 20 30 40 20


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...coastal flood advisory until 6 am EDT Tuesday for Putnam.

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