Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 161954
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
354 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Near term.../through Thursday/...
Cold front will push south of the forecast area late this afternoon,
with a secondary front moving through this evening. Most of the
convective potential will exit south with the main front this
afternoon, but a few showers will be possible along the secondary
front this evening. A few strong storms will be possible south of
i10 this afternoon. Cooler and drier air will advect in from the
northwest tonight as high pressure builds from the west northwest.
Temperatures will fall to more seasonal levels overnight. The cooler
air will likely make it to southeast Georgia beaches on the north northwest
flow, but the orientation of the wind direction may keep readings
milder at NE Florida beaches, as a more northerly flow would allow the
air to pass over the relatively warmer Atlantic waters. At this
point, expecting the cooler readings to reach Nassau and Duval
County beaches, but the milder air will likely prevail at St Johns
and Flagler Beach communities.
High pressure will continue to build southeast across the region
Thursday. However, energy begins to track northeast from the Gulf
Thursday afternoon, which will move along a stalled frontal boundary
to the south, resulting in an increase in cloud cover over southeast NE
Short term.../Thursday night through Friday night/...
Surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening
will move east towards the mid Atlantic states during the day
Friday into Friday night. The mid level ridge over Missouri
Thursday night will also progress to the Appalachians during the
day Friday into Friday evening, ahead of the next shortwave trough
moving in from the western Gulf of eastward towards the Florida
Peninsula. Dry air in place Thursday night should lead to mostly
clear skies during the course of the evening with abundant
sunshine to start the day Friday before clouds begin to approach
the area by mid day as the next surface low pressure system moves
in from the west, increasing moisture levels from west to east. A
chance of rain showers will be possible by late overnight Friday
over the Suwannee Valley region and interior southeast Georgia with the
approaching surface low.
Light northwest winds overnight Thursday will veer to the north by
Friday morning and then to the NE during the day Friday as
surface high pressure to the northwest progressess eastward to our
north by morning and then NE of the area later in the day,
allowing winds to eventually move onshore from the east by the
afternoon. Lows overnight should be in the upper 40s to low 50s in
interior southeast GA, mid 50s for interior NE Florida and mid to upper 50s
for the coast. Highs Friday, clouds approaching from the west
should keep high temps in the mid 70s for interior southeast Georgia and NE
FL, with coastal areas rebounding into the upper 70s with
additional sunshine during the day before clouds reach the coast.
With increasing moisture levels and cloud cover, overnight lows
Friday should be warmer, dropping only into the low to mid 60s for
all of southeast Georgia and the mid to upper 60s for all NE Florida locations.
Saturday's highs should in the upper 70s for inland southeast GA, low 80s
for inland NE Florida and near 80 for the coast with southeastly flow.
Long term.../Saturday through Wednesday/...
Saturday, rain is likely as the surface low moves NE through the
area. Breezy conditions are expected with southeast winds veering
to the south as a warm front over central Florida extending from
the the low moves northward and passes through our area overnight
Saturday night into Sunday, lifting northward into the Georgia and SC
coastline by later in the day Sunday. Monday, the surface low
moves NE towards the Outer Banks of NC, leaving a trailing
stationary cold front over southern Georgia and with a chance of
lingering rain showers during the day Monday with light westerly
winds. Rain chances increase Monday evening into Tuesday as the
next strong cold front approaches our area from the northwest
before drier air and cooler conditions move in behind the front.
Relative humidity values could drop to below 30% for interior portions of NE Florida
and southeast Georgia during the afternoon hours on Thursday, mainly along
and north of the I-10 corridor. However, northwest winds are
expected to remain light and conditions should not reach red flag
warning criteria. Moisture levels increase by Friday morning, and
rain chances will increase late Friday evening into Saturday with
an approaching surface low to our west.
A cold front will move southeast across area waters this afternoon
and evening, with high pressure building to the northwest overnight,
then to the north Friday. A warm front, extending from a low over
the northeastern Gulf, will be over region Friday night into
Saturday. This low will track northeast across area waters Saturday
night into Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible
over the weekend due to this low pressure system moving through.
Weak high pressure will build Sunday night into Monday, with a cold
front moving southeast across region Tuesday.
Rip currents: moderate risk continues today, low risk for Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amg 50 74 49 74 58 / 20 0 0 0 50
ssi 59 75 58 75 67 / 20 0 0 0 40
jax 57 78 55 77 64 / 20 0 0 10 50
sgj 64 77 61 77 67 / 20 10 0 10 50
gnv 61 81 55 76 63 / 10 10 0 20 60
ocf 65 81 59 78 65 / 20 10 0 20 60