Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 201726
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
1226 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019
[through 18z thursday]
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northwest to north
winds 5-10 knots will become north northeast by the evening.
Northeast winds 5-10 knots will prevail on Thursday. Clouds will
begin to increase near the end of the taf period as a coastal
trough develops and moves inland.
Previous discussion [922 am est]...
Near term [through tonight]...
Gorgeous weather day as high pressure dominates the region.
Continued dry, a bit warmer, and weaker winds as surface high
pressure over the central Gulf Coast states shifts northward
toward the Carolinas through tonight while an upper level ridge
over the central Continental U.S. Shifts eastward. Mostly sunny skies will
prevail today with increasing cirrus from the west into the
evening. Light north-northwest winds < 10 mph will transition to north-northeast into the
afternoon as the surface ridge builds to the north. Winds veer
more east-northeast along the coast tonight with a few low level stratocumulus
approaching the St. Johns and Flagler County coast after midnight.
Temperatures will moderate today as ridging builds in from the
west. Highs will warm into the mid/upper 60s across most zones to
near 70 across our southern Florida zones from gnv to ocf. Tonight, dry
air will remain in place inland with a cool north-northeast drainage flow
focusing the lowest mins in the 40s across inland southeast Georgia and the
Suwannee River valley while north-northeast onshore flow increases moisture
and raises lows into the low 50s along the NE Florida Atlantic coast.
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
Surface ridge will shift eastward to the East Coast on Thursday.
This will produce east to northeast winds across our area with the
dry pattern continuing. Winds will veer to the southwest for
Friday ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures will be near
average on Thursday and then above average on Friday with highs
reaching the mid/upper 70s.
Long term [saturday through tuesday]...
Warm and mostly dry conditions for Saturday as cold front moves
east into SW GA by early evening. The front will move across the
area Saturday night bringing a good chance of showers to the area.
The front will push se of the area early Sunday morning with
showers ending and decreasing cloudiness. Cooler and drier
conditions behind the front will lower temperatures back to near
average levels for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will start to
rebound on Tuesday as a return flow commences.
High pressure over the central Gulf Coast will build north toward
the Carolinas through tonight. West-northwest winds over the waters this
morning will veer more east-northeast into the afternoon with winds 10-15 kts
and seas of 4-6 ft within the outer Florida waters where the Small Craft Advisory was
cancelled and replaced with small craft exercise caution. The
high will settle south and build offshore of the southeast
Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday. A cold front will track south
across the local waters late Saturday with increasing SW Sat
rising to scec and Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Sat night. High pressure
will build east across the the Gulf of Mexico Sunday.
Rip currents: moderate risk today due to lingering easterly
swells of 2 ft and periods of 13-14 seconds. Moderate risk
Tidal departures continued to dampen with most gauges along the NE
Florida coast and within the St. Johns basin reaching +1-1.5 ft mhhw
around high tide. Scaled back the coastal flood (cf) products as
water levels continue to gradually subside today. Cancelled the cf
statement for Camden & Nassau counties were high tides will peak
below action stage. Replaced the cf advisory with a cf statement
for Duval, St. Johns and Clay counties were tides will peak
between action and minor flood stage. Continued the coastal flood
advisory for minor tidal flooding for Putnam and Flagler counties.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amg 42 68 46 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 10
ssi 50 66 52 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
jax 47 70 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
sgj 53 70 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
gnv 45 71 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ocf 47 73 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...coastal flood advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for coastal