Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kjax 222013 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
313 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

Near term [through tonight]...

Mostly clear conditions tonight, with partly cloudy skies and
minimal chances for parts of inland southeast Georgia. Winds are
expected to be mostly calm overnight allowing for the development
of patchy areas of fog over southeast Georgia and parts of
northeast Florida during the early morning hours tomorrow and then
dispersing after sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
lower to mid 50s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 50s
along the coast.

Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...

Warm southwesterly flow will occur ahead of the approaching cold
front, which is expected to pass through the region from out of
the northwest late Saturday night and early Sunday. Showers are
expected with this frontal passage, however there is also a
slight chance for the development of embedded thunderstorms. The
weekend will have a marked shift in temperatures with the passage
of the cold front, with high temps on Saturday reaching into the
mid to upper 70s and then diving on Sunday, with Max temps
predominantly in the mid to low 60s. Overnight low temperatures
will show a similar decline, with min temps dropping from out of
the 50s down into the 40s.

Long term [monday through thursday]...

Next week will start off with high pressure and cool conditions
as the cold airmass behind the front settles in over the area. On
Wednesday the airmass will weaken, with the frontal boundary
moving south, allowing for a moist airflow to move from out of
the Gulf and over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. This
could lead to potential convection by midweek for much of the
forecast area. High temperatures for the coming week will rise
from out of the 60s on Monday into the 70s by Wednesday, with low
temps similarly rising from out of the 40s into the 50s.


[through 18z saturday]

Southwest winds 5-10 knots will prevail across the interior taf
sites. A weak East Coast sea breeze is forecast to develop this
afternoon, with south to southeast winds 5-10 knots at the
coastal taf sites. Light and variable winds will prevail
overnight. Patchy fog is forecast to develop before daybreak on
Saturday, and could impact the taf the interior taf sites.



Winds will build to out of the SW tonight and tomorrow as a cold
front moves in from out of the northwest. Nearshore waters may reach
small craft exercise caution levels of winds, with offshore winds
reaching into Small Craft Advisory levels late Saturday night and
into early Sunday. After the frontal passage on Sunday, winds will
shift around to out of the northwest and speeds will decrease to more
manageable levels.

Rip currents: low risk for tonight, possible moderate risk


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Amg 54 75 49 62 41 / 0 50 60 0 0
ssi 56 73 53 64 47 / 0 20 40 0 0
jax 54 77 53 66 45 / 0 20 40 0 0
sgj 56 75 56 67 49 / 0 10 50 10 0
gnv 52 76 54 66 44 / 0 20 50 10 0
ocf 54 77 57 68 45 / 0 20 60 10 0


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations