Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 171128 cca
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
713 am EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
[through 12z friday]
VFR conditions are expected through the morning into this
afternoon. High level clouds moving in from the west today along
with light northwest winds of 5-10 knots at all taf sites.
Previous discussion [429 am edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
Cool high pressure builds to the northwest of the area today and
north of the area tonight producing mostly clear skies
light winds and unseasonably cool temps. Highs will be in the
mid/upper 70s for most areas except around 80 far south. Lows will range
from the upper 40s across inland southeast Georgia to the upper 50s to near
60 far south and along the coast.
Short term [friday through saturday]...
The cool and dry conditions will continue into Friday morning
with an increase in mid and high clouds during the day.
Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast Friday
afternoon into Friday night as a developing low pressure
across the SW Gulf of Mexico rapidly tracks NE towards
the Gulf Coast. NHC gives this system a 70 percent chance
of developing into a subtropical or tropical system in
the next 48 hours. There are continued discrepancies between
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) on the exact track although the trend
will be for some type of a system to pass to the west and
north of the area on Saturday before lifting NE out of
the area Saturday night. Main concern will be for heavy
rain of possibly 1 to 3 inches depending on the exact
track. Temps will average slightly above normal with
warm overnight lows due to cloud cover.
Long term [sunday through thursday]...
Low pressure will continue to track to the NE away from
the area on Sunday and Monday with weak area of high
pressure building in behind it. Will probably have
somewhat of a lull of precip at that time. A cold front will
traverse the area on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers
and possibly a few storms. High pressure builds in behind
the front bringing cooler and drier conditions for Wednesday
with slightly below normal temps.
High pressure builds to the northwest and north of the waters
through Friday producing light NW winds today and a light
onshore flow Friday. Low pressure is expected to track to
the west and north of the waters over the weekend producing
numerous showers and isolated storms. Winds increase and
veer to the se on Saturday and SW on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible Saturday and Saturday night as the low passes to
the west and north of the waters. Weak high pressure builds
in Sunday night into Monday with a decrease in winds and seas.
Cool high pressure will build just north of the area through
Friday producing cooler and drier conditions. Winds will be much
lighter than yesterday. Min rh's will fall to 30 to 35 percent
across most inland areas this afternoon. Low mixing heights and
light winds will result in low dispersions especially along and
south of the I-10 corridor Friday. Rain chances increase over the
weekend as low pressure tracks to the west and north of the area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amg 74 46 74 60 77 / 0 0 10 50 70
ssi 74 57 75 68 79 / 0 0 10 50 70
jax 77 52 77 65 81 / 0 0 20 50 70
sgj 77 60 77 68 81 / 0 0 20 50 70
gnv 80 56 76 65 81 / 0 0 30 50 70
ocf 81 58 78 67 82 / 0 0 30 50 70