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fxus63 kjkl 172104 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
404 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 404 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019

Surface high pressure is retreating off along the Saint Lawrence
River valley, with an area of low pressure noted across south
central Ontario. A cold front extends south across the Midwest and
down into the Southern Plains. Aloft, a trough axis is nearly
stacked overtop the surface reflection from the Great Lakes down
into the Southern Plains. Short wave ridging is aligned from the
eastern Gulf to the central Appalachians. Plenty of high clouds
have advected into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys this afternoon,
with temperatures currently ranging from the lower to middle 50s
along and north of the mountain parkway, to the upper 50s and
lower 60s across our southern counties.

A more unsettled pattern lies ahead, as a trough axis moves east
across the Mississippi Valley through the short term, and an
embedded short wave trough becomes more negatively tilted as it
moves across the Ohio Valley on Monday. Additional northern stream
energy will help reinforce the long wave trough east of the
Mississippi River by late Monday night. This will allow for mostly
cloudy skies and periods of light precipitation across eastern

The increased cloud cover will thwart the lows tonight, with most
locations remaining in the mid to upper 30s; however, a quicker
drop could be seen in the far east, and have allowed for some
lower 30s for these locations. Some spotty light rain will be seen
Monday into Monday night, as the trough axis and surface cold
front pass through the region. Have favored more of a diurnally
limited temperature range, given the pattern. Highs on Monday will
be in the upper 40s to around 50, with lows generally in the mid
30s Monday night.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 404 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019

The long wave pattern continues to look generally amplified and
progressive through the period. Model differences in timing and
amplitude regarding small scale features continue to abound, so
will lean more on the blended model guidance for the forecast.

Light rain will continue to threaten on Tuesday, as the trough
axis gradually shifts off to our east. Ridging will move in across
the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, bringing decreasing clouds
and dry weather to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A cold front
will move through the area Thursday into Friday, with the highest
pops continuing to peak Thursday night. A general lull in the
action will occur into Friday night, before another round of rain
threatens Saturday into Saturday night, as low pressure gens up
along the baroclinic zone to our south.

Temperatures will trend above normal through mid-week, before
cooling off to near normal into the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 114 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019

Clouds will gradually increase and lower through the period;
however, VFR conditions will be maintained, as ceilings will
remain near or above 10k feet agl. Winds will average around 5 kts
or less.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...

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