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fxus63 klbf 212344 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
544 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 311 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

The main concern in the short term period is with the
chance of snow across southwest Nebraska and the low temperatures
tonight. Late evening there is the potential for flurries to light
snow, mainly after 9pm CT for southwest Nebraska. Did extend the
snow chances slightly farther north, but still kept it across the
southern portion of the County Warning Area. The rap model did try to hint at some
snowfall farther north, but this seemed to be an outlier and
trended more towards the ec and GFS. Also after collaboration
from other offices adjusted the time of the snowfall a couple
hours earlier as the system looks to approach the area a little
sooner than expected. Forecaster confidence is low in coverage of
snow chances but with forcing around the area, did not want to
decrease chances. Confidence is moderate that little to no snow
accumulation is expected tonight.

Timing wise, snow chance will be limited with any snow chances
ending by sunrise. As for lows overnight, increased lows slightly,
mainly across the southern cwa, by a few degrees, as cloud
coverage overnight should keep temperatures a little warmer.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 311 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

The main concern in the long term will be the potential for snowfall
on Monday and Tuesday. At this time there is a lot of uncertainty
with the track of the system. Earlier model runs brought the system
across the High Plains including portions of our western forecast
area. That being said some of the latest model runs have shifted the
track, bringing areas of greatest precipitation potential south of
the forecast area. This will continue to be a system that we will
monitor as we get closer the track of the storm should become a
little more clear, but at this time forecaster confidence is low
in the exact track. There is also the hint of another possible
system on its heels for the end of the forecast period that could
bring more precipitation chances.

As for this weekend, temperatures will warm into the low 50s on
Saturday and mid to upper 50s on Sunday. Saturday and Sunday will
also remain dry with no concerns for precipitation.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 544 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Mid level clouds are expected over the next couple hours, however,
ceilings will remain in VFR conditions. Skies will gradually clear
by early Friday morning with light winds prevailing through the
remainder of the taf forecast.


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...

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