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fxus63 klbf 130538 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1138 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 231 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The main concern in the short term will be the chance of some wintry
mix across portions of north central Nebraska tonight and into
Wednesday morning. This precipitation is tied to a mid-level
shortwave pivoting from the northern plains through the Central
Plains. Ample epv combined with enough lift and moisture will allow
for precipitation to develop across northern Nebraska. Fairly warm
mid level temperatures will keep the majority of the precipitation
rain or freezing rain. A few locations across the Pine Ridge region
could see snow but accumulations are expected to be less than a half
inch. Elsewhere across north central Nebraska (mainly north of
Highway 2) a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and rain is
possible. This quick moving system will struggle to produce much
more than a couple hundredths (0.01 to 0.05 inches) of ice
accumulation. The best locations for ice will be north of a line
from Springview to Bartlett. While ice is possible early morning
(between 4am to 7am cst), warmer temperatures will change over all
precipitation to rain by mid morning. Precipitation will be out of
the region by noon CST with cloudy conditions for the remainder of
the day.

Surface high pressure builds into the region with strong upper level
ridging across the western US on Wednesday night. Clouds are
expected to clear out allowing for sufficient radiational cooling
across north central and western Nebraska. Temperatures will drop
into the low 20s on Wednesday night as a result.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 231 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

High pressure and dry weather will remain over the region for the
most part through early next week. There is a slight chance of some
light precipitation that barely brushes our northern border on both
Saturday night and Sunday night. Confidence is very low in
precipitation development and at this time precipitation appears to
be mostly rain as warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures above
freezing pushes into the region.

The next major precipitation concern arrives towards the middle of
next week. Model consistency is too low at this time to pinpoint
locations of precipitation or precipitation type. At this time,
though, the system looks to be mostly rain. Stay tuned to later
forecasts for additional information about this mid-week system.

For temperatures, continue to see a gradual rise in temperatures
heading into the weekend and into next week. High temperatures will
generally be in the low 50s (in the north) to the upper 50s,
possibly low 60s (in the south) from Friday through next Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s through
the middle of next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

A disturbance will move into northern Nebraska late tonight and
move through the area Wednesday. VFR conditions will persist
overnight, followed by MVFR ceilings developing across north
central Nebraska including kvtn by 14z and persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening. There will also be a chance for
light rain at kvtn mainly from 14z to 18z. Dry conditions and VFR
conditions will persist at klbf the next 24 hours. A cold front
passage will bring a northwest wind with gusts 20 to 25 kts after


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...


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