Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 060914
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
314 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019
short term...today through Saturday
Main forecast issue will be pops over the next 6-12 hours.
Mid and high level clouds continue over the area. Temperatures were
mainly in the 50s...except for lower 60s across parts of southeast
Texas. Water vapor is showing nicely an upper disturbance moving
into the arklatx area. Widely scattered showers were observed over
northern Louisiana and a few showers move through central Louisiana
before sunrise. For now, will maintain low pops over Acadiana
this morning. With rain chances ending this morning, prefrontal
trough will move through the area. Low level westerly wind
component and subsidence will allow for a much warmer afternoon.
Temperatures should reach well into the 70s...and could climb into
the 80s especially over eastern areas. Cooler air will surge over
the area tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s. Highs
will be in the 60s on Saturday. Dry weather is forecasted but weak
upper disturbances will provide mid to upper high level
Long term...Saturday night through Friday
will maintain dry weather Sunday night as surface ridge slowly moves
into the southeast U.S. Upper trough will slowly traverse through
the central U.S. Early next week. Upper disturbances rotating
around this trough and approaching frontal boundary will bring a
chance for showers beginning as early as Monday. But it appears
best chance will be on Monday night and Tuesday with frontal passage. Post
frontal rain is expected as 850mb frontal boundary will lag behind
Pops will be a challenge for Wednesday through Friday. Have opted
to follow a model blend forecast with low pops even some
individual models are trending much drier for Wednesday and
Thursday. Given a fast upper zonal flow, believe a few showers
would be possible with passing short waves.
Temperatures will be near or above normal early next week but will
forecast them below normal for mid and late week.
at this time, no significant marine hazards are forecasted with cold
front over the waters tonight. Scec conditions may develop offshore
tonight but if they occur, will likely last only through early
Surface ridge will slowly work through the area this weekend with
weak onshore flow developing. May see some modest strengthening
of onshore flow on Monday before fropa, but believe moderate to
strong northerly flow will develop after frontal passage on Tuesday.
Increased marine winds from model blend forecasts as thermal
gradient could bring wind gusts offshore to gale force.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 76 48 63 44 / 10 0 0 0
lch 77 52 66 49 / 10 0 0 0
lft 79 53 66 49 / 20 0 0 0
bpt 76 52 66 50 / 0 0 0 0