Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 180511
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1211 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
upper lvl cloud shield moving across srn la with lesser cloud deck
over se TX. This shield is expected to move east with the region
becoming sctd by sunrise. Otherwise VFR thru sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 714 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/
at this time... all taf sites are VFR with ceilings around 200 to 250.
Radar is indicating light rain in the Gulf but the rains continue
to fall through drier air. Some modification to the atmosphere
should be end result.. a few sprinkles. Visibility will remain abv p6sm
while winds less than 10 knots through the overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 449 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/
current upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows a ridge
from the high northern plains down to the Southern Plains. Out
west, there is a low with attached frontal system moving across
east causing rain in the northern Pacific coastal states and
mixed precip further inland all the way to The Rockies.
Current guidance from NHC shows tropical cyclone sixteen is in
the Bay of Campeche moving north out of the Bay into the central
Gulf of Mexico. Storm surge and tropical storm force winds are
forecasted to impact southeastern Louisiana to northwestern
Florida. For the Lake Charles cwa, it will cause scattered to
numerous showers in the coastal waters and near shore.
On Saturday and Sunday a warming trend is expected with
temperatures warming back up 5-10 degrees with sunny to mostly
sunny skies and winds returning back out of the south. The next
cold front is expecting to arrive Monday, bringing with it
widespread showers and thunderstorms.
a moderate offshore flow will persist today and Friday as
potential tropical cyclone sixteen tracks north out of the Bay of
Campeche and crosses the central Gulf of Mexico. An onshore flow
will resume late Saturday into Sunday, becoming modest Sunday
night into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to
push through the area Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal
passage, with a brisk offshore flow developing in its wake.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 53 83 63 85 / 10 0 0 10
lch 58 84 69 86 / 10 0 0 10
lft 57 83 66 86 / 10 10 0 10
bpt 60 85 71 85 / 0 0 0 10