Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 091008
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
408 am CST Mon Dec 9 2019
temperatures have been rising across the region through much of
the night as relatively warm, moist Gulf air continues to advect
into the area. The elevated winds responsible for the warming
temperatures are also serving to hold fog density in check with
the lowest visibilities observed so far this morning being 5
miles. Patchy dense fog will still be possible this morning where
winds are able to become light enough to support it, but expect
overall coverage and density to be less than yesterday.
00z klch radiosonde observation observed a saturated surface layer through
approximately 3kft last night with forecast soundings indicating
this should deepen somewhat through the day. With low level
moisture plentiful and afternoon highs expected to be flirting
with daily records, (lch daily record high is 82) isolated
diurnally driven showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms
will dot the region from late morning through the afternoon.
The approach of a cutoff low sliding east out of the Desert
Southwest tonight will provide much more favorable upper level
support for widespread showers. As the upper low crosses the
northern Gulf, its progged to become absorbed by a much larger
shortwave rotating around the central U.S. While pushing a strong
surface front through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. With widespread light to moderate showers expected across
the region for nearly 24 hours, rainfall totals of around an inch
or perhaps a bit higher are expected.
Strong cold air advection will develop the wake of the frontal passage making it
feel a bit more like mid December rather than mid April. The high
temperature forecast for tomorrow is very low confidence as it is
predicated on the exact timing of the frontal passage. A couple
hours either side of the expected timing could easily result in a
10 degree difference in high temperatures. Forecast guidance
ranges from mid 50s to mid 60s. The official forecast is based on
the current best estimate timing the frontal passage.
The much cooler, drier airmass will set the weather tone Wednesday
through Friday with temperatures beginning to moderate late Friday
into Saturday ahead of the next frontal passage over the weekend.
a modest onshore flow will prevail until a cold front pushes
through the coastal waters on Tuesday with strong north winds and
building seas expected in the wake of the frontal passage.
Widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected
to develop Monday night and continue on Tuesday with the passage
of the front. Winds and seas will subside Wednesday night into
Thursday with offshore winds persisting through the end of the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 79 52 57 31 / 30 80 100 70
lch 79 61 66 39 / 40 80 90 70
lft 79 62 69 41 / 40 70 90 80
bpt 79 61 63 39 / 20 80 100 50