Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 231706
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
issued by National Weather Service New Orleans la
1206 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019
Temperatures were rising a bit faster than forecast this morning,
so updated to raise the highs today a degree or two in most
locations. Remainder of forecast is on track.
VFR conditions with generally clear skies and very good visibility
are expected to prevail through midday Thursday.
Cancelled flood warnings on Calcasieu River at Old Town Bay and
salt water barrier with late morning flood statement. Moderate
north winds yesterday helped push the water out from the inland
tidal waterways. Minor coastal flooding may become a concern along
the coast due to stronger easterly winds that are already
occurring in the offshore waters off the southwest Louisiana and
southeast Texas coast. Will have to consider a coastal flood
advisory issuance for some western locations with the high tide
cycle tonight with a greater likelihood of minor inundation
Thursday night as stronger onshore flow is expected to persist.
Previous discussion... /issued 621 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/
VFR conditions will prevail through the day with clear skies and
easterly winds of 5-10 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/
Short term...today through Thursday
main forecast issue will be pops especially by late Thursday. Skies
were clear across the area with temperatures falling into the
40s north of i10. Further south, temperatures were in the lower to
mid 50s. Surface high over the area during the night will shift
east today and further expand over the eastern U.S tonight and
Thursday. For today, another sunny and pleasant day is expected.
Will see a modest increase in moisture on Thursday as low pressure
organizes over the western Gulf. While shower activity will likely
increase over the offshore waters and further west into Texas,
believe land areas will be spared from any rain. Highs today and
Wednesday should reach into the 70s. Tonight's lows will not be as
cold and should only fall into the 50s.
Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday
rain chances will be significantly higher Thursday night as
increasing moisture will interact with approaching upper short
wave. At the surface, a low pressure wave over the west central
Gulf will lift NE to the central Gulf Coast by Friday night.
Overall, believe thunderstorm potential will be low. However,
enough instability will certainly be available for periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall and wpc has placed a slight risk for
excessive rainfall over a large part of the forecast area. The
best timing for heavy rainfall is expected to be from late
Thursday night through Friday. Will tend to lower pops on Saturday
with the best chance early in the day. Upper pattern becomes more
complicated with periodic shortwave energy affecting the area
early next week. For now, will keep pops in the 10-20 percent
range during that time. Overall, temperatures will be slightly
as high pressure shifts into the eastern U.S., East/southeast gradient will
tighten. For now, believe gusts to 20 knots are possible today so
will have scec over both nearshore and offshore waters. Tides are
expected to be above normal today through late Friday. Will need
to monitor for minor coastal at high tide late tonight and early
Friday. At this time petss guidance is not reaching advisory
criteria. Moderate offshore flow will develop late Friday and will
diminish on Saturday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 76 50 74 56 / 0 0 10 50
lch 76 56 75 61 / 0 0 10 60
lft 75 55 75 60 / 0 0 10 60
bpt 77 61 75 61 / 0 0 10 70
GM...small craft exercise caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for