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fxus64 klch 201031 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
431 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019

12z taf issuance.


areas of dense fog continue this morning across southeast Texas/S la. Will
continue to prevail LIFR visibility/ceiling at bpt/lch through
15z, with intermittent at lft/Ara. By 15z, east southeast winds
will increase to near 8-10 kts, increasing further 12-16 kt with
gusts over 20 kts by 18z across southern terminals, slightly less
at aex. Winds will diminish after 00z, but stay elevated around
7-10 kts as the pressure gradient continues to tighten across the



Previous discussion... /issued 335 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

a hybrid fog has developed across much of the area consisting of a
combination of radiation and weak advection fog. Visibilities have
been or are at 1/2 mile of less at several locations. A dense fog
advisory is in effect for all but the eastern portion of the
forecast area. Fog will completely dissipate by mid-morning
followed by stratocu development. Stronger low level wind profiles
suggest that redevelopment Thursday morning is unlikely.

Dry weather pattern will continue today with a modest ridge aloft
over the forecast area and moisture remaining limited through the
low and mid levels. Afternoon highs will again trend above the
norm, but have reached a plateau where highs should be similar
Thursday and Friday. Will see significantly warmer overnight lows
though as low several southerlies strengthen and deepen.

Holding off on any rain mention until Thursday afternoon and only
for the possibility of a few showers over the western portion of
the area. This as a lead shortwave trof advances across the
plains initiating a moisture return to this area. Main low now
hugging the south California coast will kick out advancing through
the plains Friday and across the upper Mississippi Valley
Saturday. Feature will be sufficient to drive another cold front
across the forecast area Friday night and early Saturday. Boundary
will be accompanied and preceded by showers and a possibly a few
thunderstorms, with rains diminishing west to east Saturday as it
exits the area and sharply drier air makes a return through the
column. Pacific frontal passage will not be significant with
temperatures simply trending back down toward late November norms.
Models suggesting next frontal passage with rains incoming

a light to moderate south to southeast flow will continue
between high pressure over the eastern Continental U.S. And low pressure
through the plains. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will
return Friday as a cold front approaches, moving across the
northwest Gulf late Friday into early Saturday. Rains will
diminish with the passage of the front with a moderate offshore
flow following.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 74 53 77 60 / 0 0 0 30
lch 76 61 77 65 / 0 0 10 20
lft 75 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 10
bpt 75 64 77 66 / 0 0 10 30


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for laz027-028-

Texas...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for txz180-201-


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