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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
328 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Short term...
a weak shortwave is currently racing across Oklahoma and will
continue through the lower Mississippi Valley today, bring a few
showers across the County Warning Area. Coverage should be upwards of 40 to 50% but
with qpf amounts mainly less than a tenth of an inch. Before the
cooler air moves in with the front associated with this trough,
temps should warm quite a bit today. Highs yesterday were right at
to slightly above mav guidance, so went with that same trend for
today. Thus, expect highs to Max out in the mid to upper 70s. The
cooler air will then move in tonight into Saturday, which will bring
temps down to slightly below climatological normals. Shallowness and
quick speed of the shortwave means those cool temps will only last
for a day before beginning to moderate. Sunday will bring a
continuation of Saturday, albeit slightly warmer. Could be a few
lingering showers in the coastal waters as the previous cold front
stalls in the northern Gulf. Most should remain offshore but
possible to have isolated showers reach coastal parishes/counties in
the County Warning Area.

Long term...
a much more amplified upper level trough will move into the
midsection of the country Monday, before lifting northeast
Wednesday. It will start out as 2 separate troughs, one coming out
of Canada and another racing through the Desert Southwest. They will
merge Tuesday, spanning across the entire eastern half of the
country. A cold front associated with this feature will move through
the forecast area Tuesday morning. Expecting showers ahead of,
along, and Post frontal. Event qpf amounts still look to be on the
lower side, generally a quarter to half an inch. Pop forecast is
generally a blend of those 2 models. The rain should quickly exit
Wednesday as the apex of the trough passes east of the region. The
rest of the forecast period will yield no to low rain chances and
temps running several degrees below normal.

Meffer
&&

Aviation...ceilings at a few sites have started to develop at
ovc020-030. This will continue to be the trend this morning at all
sites. After ceilings become established, they will begin to lower
through the remainder of the day and overnight. By this evening
ceilings should be lower than ovc010. Some -ra will also accompany
the lowering ceilings. A few mainly coastal sites could observe some
lowered vis later today into tonight. A cold front will move through
this evening cleaning most of these conditions out.

&&

Marine...southeast winds will remain at 10-15kt today. There is a
potential that some fog will start to form later this morning and
throughout the remainder of the day into tonight. The fog should
stay within the nearshore waters. Areas of fog will be used for
these locations but this may be spread over the lakes as well if
trends show development over those areas today. A cold front moves
through this evening lifting and moving the fog out of the area.
Behind this front, winds will shift to northerly around 10-15kt
through Saturday. Winds will become light and variable once again
Sunday before abruptly becoming south Sunday night around 15-20kt.
These conditions should hold into Monday night as another cold front
approaches. Strong northerly winds and widespread showers will
develop and remain through the day Tuesday. These conditions will be
pressed south into the central Gulf Wednesday, but will rapidly move
back into the area for the end of next week.

&&

Decision support...

Dss code: blue.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: forecast support to city of New Orleans

&&

Decision support...

Dss code: blue.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: forecast support to city of New Orleans




&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 72 53 64 51 / 40 30 10 10
btr 77 54 64 50 / 40 20 0 10
asd 75 54 67 51 / 40 30 0 10
msy 76 57 66 54 / 40 30 0 10
gpt 70 54 65 54 / 40 30 0 10
pql 74 54 68 52 / 40 30 10 10

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.

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