Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 132119
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
419 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019
latest surface analysis revealed a 1019mb high over the arklamiss
region with a stationary boundary from northern Georgia to north
central Gulf to the west Gulf. An inverted trough was located on
the end of the boundary over the west Gulf. Light north winds were
present across the forecast area with surface dewpoint readings
from the upper 50s across southern Mississippi to the lower 70s
the Mississippi Delta.
Upper level analysis showed a large cyclonic circulation over Lake
Superior...westerly flow over the Mississippi Valley to the mid-
Atlantic states. In addition, a flatten ridge was located over
Florida Peninsula to west Gulf. Precipitable water plots and GFS
initialized data showed a moisture axis from south Texas to north
central Gulf to Georgia. Values 2.0 to 2.2 inches were over Gulf
and 1.8 to 1.6 inches from north Gulf to Georgia.
surface high over the deep south will be slow to retreat
northeast through Monday. As a result, northeast to east surface
winds will persist over the forecast area through Monday morning.
Most areas will fall mainly into 60s tonight. Southwest flow
aloft will maintain a steady stream of moisture with broken cloud
cover through Monday. The main low over the Great Lakes region
will lift northeast. As a result, heights will increase slowly
over the Gulf Coast Monday through Wednesday. This feature will
yield a slow warm up before another cold front pushes through
Wednesday. Surface flow will become southeast on Monday with
precipitable water values increasing up to 2.1 inches across the
forecast area by Monday afternoon. Rain chances will increase and
moderate instability will yield a few storms. Forcing from the
frontal passage will yield scattered to numerous showers and
storms...a few strong storms Tuesday and Tuesday night. In
addition, there is marginal risk of heavy rainfall across the
north with slow south progression of the front.
Front will push through Wednesday with temperatures cooling off.
In addition, rain chances should decrease Wednesday afternoon and
Thursday. GFS and Euro have backed off developing something over
the west Gulf later this week. This system will merge with an
approaching trough Friday and Saturday spreading moisture over
north central Gulf with the additional moisture advecting north
over Louisiana and Mississippi latter part of next weekend.
expect VFR conditions to continue through the 12z Monday. Ceilings
will begin to lower by 12z some MVFR conditions to be expected
between 12 and 18z Monday.
high pressure shifts to the east early this week, and a warm
front will move inland Monday, winds will turn more southerly and
should increase to 10 to 15 knots. Another front will then cause
winds to shift back to the northwest and then north during the day
Wednesday. Colder air advecting in from the north will also allow
stronger winds aloft to mix down. Expect to see winds of 15 to 20
knots redevelop by Wednesday afternoon and persist into Thursday.
A possible weather system over southwest Gulf will be picked up by
an approaching trough Friday and Saturday...spreading moisture
over north central Gulf and possibly increase wind speeds and
waves on the outer waters later Friday and Saturday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 60 77 68 83 / 20 50 40 80
btr 65 80 71 84 / 20 70 20 80
asd 64 80 70 84 / 20 40 20 70
msy 72 84 74 87 / 10 60 10 60
gpt 67 80 72 83 / 10 30 20 70
pql 64 80 70 83 / 10 20 20 60