Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klmk 140502
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
102 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
..updated aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 217 PM EDT sun Oct 13 2019
Just north of the Great Lakes, a stacked low sits at the top of an
upper trough axis. This axis will slowly continue to move east
through the County Warning Area during the rest of today. This allows surface high
pressure to build in while maintaining area southwest surface flow.
The region will notice clear skies and just enough warm air to keep
frost from forming tonight.
Tonight, lows will drop down to near 40 for most. Louisville, being
the heat island that it is, will bottom out in the mid 40s.
Tomorrow, clear skies remain. Highs in the low 70s across Kentucky
with areas in southern Indiana only seeing upper 60s.
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 242 PM EDT sun Oct 13 2019
Monday night and Tuesday will be characterized by moderating
temperatures as the circulation around surface high pressure moving
from the Ohio Valley to Long Island brings warmer air northward.
Look for lows Tuesday morning in the lower and middle 40s with highs
that afternoon in the lower and middle 70s.
Tuesday night through Wednesday a sharp upper trough will cruise
through the Great Lakes with a breezy surface cold frontal passage
in the middle Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Scattered showers will
accompany the system, with possibly a few rumbles of thunder in some
weak elevated instability over southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky closer to better forcing. However with widespread
convection expected from Texas to the Carolinas, rainfall amounts in
our neck of the Woods will be on the light side...less than a
quarter of an inch.
Dry weather will return Wednesday through Friday as ridging at the
surface, and eventually aloft, pushes through. Some light patchy
frost will be possible in sheltered areas Thursday morning, and
perhaps in the east Friday morning.
This weekend will be warm as a deep upper trough digs into the
plains and a large dome of high pressure slips off the East Coast.
Temperatures each afternoon will be well into the 70s. Precipitation
chances are challenging given that we will be in the warm sector
with precipitable water values on the order of 1-1.5", but the main
triggers will remain just off to our west and north. Also, the GFS
has trended drier over its past few runs. This uncertainty
necessitates keeping rain chances low for now.
Aviation...(06z taf issuance)
issued at 100 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
VFR conditions and light winds from the SW will prevail during this
taf period as surface high pressure maintains influence over the