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fxus63 klsx 141944 
afdlsx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
244 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Short term... (through late Tuesday night)
issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Weak cold front has stalled out just south of St. Louis Metro area
today. In the meantime, models still indicating upper level trough
over northern plains will continue to deepen as it tracks to the
east towards Great Lakes region. This trough will drag associated
surface cold front towards forecast area with it entering
northwestern MO after 06z Tuesday. Ahead of cold front, stalled
frontal boundary will become a warm front and lift northward
allowing southeast to south winds to return as well as some low
level moisture. Some weak lift on nose of low level jet associated with this
warm front so will see scattered showers and possibly a few storms
develop late tonight, mainly over portions of northeast MO and west
central Illinois.

After 12z Tuesday, main cold front will begin to slide through
region with increasing chances of showers and storms, especially
Tuesday afternoon through evening from the St. Louis Metro area and
points to the south and east. Front will exit region by 06z
Wednesday with surface ridge building in. Winds will pickup from the
northwest behind the frontal boundary with gusts up to 25 mph at
times.

As for temperatures, they will be a bit above normal tonight in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. On Tuesday, another mild day in store with
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Once front moves through Tuesday
night, lows will dip down into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Byrd

Long term... (wednesday through next monday)
issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

With decent northwest flow aloft and surface ridge building into
the region on Wednesday, it will be another cold fall day with highs
only in the 50s, about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Wednesday night the surface ridge will begin to slide off to our
east with upper level ridge building in. This will allow southerly
winds to return to the region with warming conditions through the
last part of the work week and into next weekend.

Otherwise, extended models continue to indicate an upper level
trough over the western U.S. Will deepen and lift northeastward,
dragging a cold front through forecast area Friday night and
Saturday with slight chances of showers and storms. An even more
robust system is possible for last half of weekend and into early
next week with more rain expected.

Byrd
&&

Aviation... (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Weak cold front has stalled out just south of St. Louis Metro
area, so winds will remain light and variable through this
evening, then as boundary begins to move back north as a warm
front, winds will become southeast to south. Isolated/scattered
showers and storms will develop after 08z Tuesday near KUIN, so
kept vicinity shower mention there between 08z and 12z Tuesday.
Main cold front will then move through forecast area during the
day on Tuesday with VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR along and just
behind boundary. Otherwise, south winds will pickup a bit and veer
to the southwest, then eventually to the west on back side of
cold front.

Specifics for kstl:
weak cold front has stalled out just south of St. Louis Metro
area, so winds will remain light and variable through this
evening, then as boundary begins to move back north as a warm
front, winds will become southeast to south. Main cold front will
then move through Metro area during the day on Tuesday with VFR
ceilings, lowering to MVFR along and just behind boundary after
15z Tuesday. Will also see more showers and storms develop,
especially over the St. Louis Metro area, so have vicinity shower
mention after 18z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Saint Louis 54 73 44 57 / 10 40 30 0
Quincy 50 67 40 53 / 30 10 0 0
Columbia 53 68 39 55 / 20 20 0 0
Jefferson City 54 69 40 55 / 20 30 5 0
Salem 47 73 42 57 / 5 50 50 0
Farmington 50 73 40 58 / 5 50 50 0

&&

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.

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