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fxus64 klub 210503 aab 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
1103 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

area of LIFR to vlifr conditions is rapidly expanding northward
towards klbb and will arrive at the terminal shortly before the
06z tafs go into effect. This area will continue to push north
towards kpvw as well and have added to this taf. Kcds should
remain far enough north to not see IFR/LIFR conditions. Next
impact will be a cold front currently moving south across the
Texas Panhandle that will arrive before sunrise and faster than
any current computer forecast has. Time of arrival tool has been
consistent placing the front into kcds at 08z, kpvw 09z, and klbb
around 1030z. This should help to push out the LIFR/IFR ceilings
only to be replaced by a MVFR ceiling that could bounce between
MVFR to VFR height. Cloud deck will likely remain in place through
all of the afternoon into Thursday night.



Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

a leading upper level impulse was gradually ejecting through the
Texas South Plains region this afternoon and should pull remaining
shower activity east by early this evening. Drier air will follow
while a trailing cold front will sag through the area near or just
after daybreak Thursday. This front may be capable of isolated to
scattered showers near or over our southern areas Thursday morning
and enough instability will be around to consider isolated thunder
as well. Solutions not in perfect agreement how far north into our
area valid showers will exist tomorrow morning, so we followed
the blended solution bringing mention of showers into mainly the
southern parts of the South Plains and rolling plains.

The next impulse ejecting east from the notable upper level low
pressure system centered over the Mojave Desert, will bring
increasing lift via right upper level jet energy skirting through
the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains late Thursday. Rain
and possibly isolated thunder will erupt again as this lift
spreads out of eastern New Mexico atop the cool surface dome with
at least weak low level isentropic lift and upslope contributing
to generate fairly solid rain chances centered Thursday evening.
Lift should gradually pull to the east late Thursday night though
even colder air will spread out of the Panhandle and could switch
precipitation type to light snow or snow showers over the southern
Panhandle, much as previously indicated. Our snow accumulation
potential looks quite low, and our forecast will not indicate any
accumulations. But there may be a risk for icy spots developing as
temperatures settle just below freezing in this area.

Upper flow will veer fairly sharply to the west-southwest and dry
out early Friday. And the old upper low in the southwest finally
should either channel into the convergent upper flow or perhaps
follow with a weak upper trough passage Friday night. But this
will be a dry event.

The weekend will begin fairly cool in the following northwest flow
aloft, but will modify to near or a little above normal
temperatures Sunday.

Early next week will feature another dry cold front then
increasing southwest flow aloft in advance of what may prove a
significant weather maker upper level low pressure system late
next week. More on this in following forecasts. Rmcqueen


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