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fxus64 klzk 161942 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
242 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Short term...tonight through Wednesday
satellite and radar observations indicate isolated, weak single
cell convection has developed across southern portions of
Missouri. Little overall movement has been noted. This activity
will end quickly after sunset.

Persistent conditions are expected during the short term period,
with above normal temperatures expected during the day, with near
normal overnight low temperatures expected. A surface high
pressure ridge will extend from the Ohio Valley through the mid
south during this period. Mid level high pressure will extend from
the Great Lakes region, southward to Arkansas as well.

At this time, guidance suggests that any affects from potential
tropical development to the southwest would occur after this
period.

&&

Long term...Wednesday night through Monday
the tropical disturbance off the Gulf is forecast to come onshore by
midweek. The forecast challenge here will be its interaction timing
with a slow moving frontal boundary expected to move through the
Central Plains and into the midsouth by late this week. Either way,
these two features will allow adequate opportunities of increased
Gulf moisture and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms by
Friday. Would expect a convective focus with localized heavy
rainfall by late in the weekend. As of right now, the models want to
keep this axis just north of the Arkansas/MO border.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 96 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 92 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 98 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 98 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 94 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 96 69 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 97 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 96 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 96 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 95 71 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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