Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 121144
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
544 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019
Updated for aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 254 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019/
Skies are mostly clear across the mid-south early this morning
with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure is
currently over the eastern Ohio Valley. This high will allow one
more day of dry weather for the mid-south today. Temperatures will
be similar to yesterday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
A surface low is expected to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico
this morning. This low is expected to move north today and
tonight. As the low gets closer to the Louisiana coast, rain
showers will start to move north into Gulf Coast states. Some of
this rain may reach portions of northeast Mississippi overnight
tonight. Temperatures will not be as chilly tonight with lows
Friday in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
On Friday, the surface low will take a northeast track and reach
the Florida Panhandle by Friday evening. More rain is expected to
move into the mid-south mainly east of the Mississippi River both
Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be a couple degrees
cooler than today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures Friday night will be similar to tonight with lows in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.
The surface low will be over the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday so
the rain will be out of the region. Dry weather will continue
through Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
A weak cold front will move into the region on Sunday. This front
will provide a focus for more rain across the region for Sunday
and Sunday night. Low pressure will develop along this front and
will be centered over northwest Louisiana by Monday morning. This
will enhance the chance of rain across much of the mid-south for
Sunday night and Monday. This low will reach the mid-Atlantic
states by Tuesday morning. As it moves away from the region, rain
will be ending from west to east Monday night. Colder air will
also be returning the mid-south Monday night so some of the rain
may change over to snow before the precipitation ends.
High pressure builds back into the region on Tuesday bringing
another period of dry weather and below normal temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday.
VFR conditions will continue into this evening. MVFR cigs will
move into area east of the MS river tonight with IFR conds
likely at ktup by Friday morning. Some models are showing some
dense fog development on the west side of this stratus deck which
could impact kjbr late tonight. Not confident in this but will
need to watch. S/southeast winds at 6-10 kts today will diminish to 5 KS
or so tonight.