Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 200459
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1159 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
dense fog has developed so will issue a dense fog advisory. Also,
updated the aviation dissussion.
Fog is due to the higher dew points in the area. Early this
evening dew points were in the 40s and low 50s and now there are
Previous discussion... /issued 1019 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
updated the sky cover for the next couple of hours and the weather
grid to include some patchy fog before midnight.
some low clouds and fog have moved west in parts of west
Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Otherwise forecast is on
track. Don't think the fog will be thick enough to need a dense
fog advisory. Tlsjr
Previous discussion... /issued 218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
Stubborn clouds and patchy drizzle hanging around northeast
Mississippi and a portion of west Tennessee this afternoon. This
will slowly erode late this afternoon and evening. With light
winds again tonight patchy fog should form.
Our focus shifts to a strong cold front forecast to move across our
region on Monday. Some timing difference are still evident in the
models, however it appears rainfall timing runs from early morning
Monday across eastern Arkansas exiting northeast Mississippi late
afternoon. Severe weather potential is mixed. The best instability
appears earliest in the morning, then relaxing through the day.
Obviously with these types of fronts in October there is a fair
amount of shear available for the possibility of wind damage along
with an isolated tornado potential. Pockets of heavy rainfall
will also occur, however the front is moving fairly briskly.
Seasonal weather is expected for the middle of the week before
another weather systems converges on the region late in the week.
The GFS is combining abundant Gulf moisture with the front leading
to a fairly decent rainfall event Thursday night into Friday. The
Canadian is less so on the Gulf moisture, meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) is
on the wetside with a developing closed low. Although there is
uncertainty in the evolution of this system there is increasing
confidence in a widespread rainfall with this front. There are
timing differences with the ending of the rainfall, especially
considering the European model (ecmwf) closed low solution. For now will exit the
rainfall later Friday via the GFS/Canadian solutions.
Fog has developed and will be at most sites, don't expect it to be
solid all night, however, some sites will be lower much of the
night. Light winds will continue. IFR and LIFR for much of the
early morning hours. MVFR and VFR conditions after sunrise. Tlsjr
Arkansas...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT Sunday for Clay-Craighead-
MO...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Tennessee...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT Sunday for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-