Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 161732
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
updated for 18z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 428 am CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/
Latest surface analysis places a cold front just east of the
Tennessee River at this hour. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s
behind the front, with a few areas still in the mid 60s over
northeast Mississippi ahead of the front. A few lingering showers
remain over portions of west Tennessee and north Mississippi, but
will quickly shift east of the area by sunrise. Today will be on
the cool side as moderate cold air advection will keep temperatures at Bay,
albeit plentiful sunshine. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s
areawide, northwest winds, and abundant sunshine.
Surface high pressure will remain anchored over the mid-south
through Friday. This will result in a decent warming trend
through the weekend. Expect highs similar to today on Thursday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday.
There is still considerable model disagreement for this weekend's
forecast. The main concern continues to be the degree of moisture
return ahead of a shortwave on Saturday. The Euro continues to be
bullish, with warm air advection showers and a few thunderstorms moving into the
area Saturday afternoon and hanging around through Sunday. The
Canadian and GFS are still advertising low end pops and light
precipitation accumulations through the entire weekend. Decided to
stick with low end pops (<30) through the weekend, as confidence
still remains less than ideal at this time.
The models are in better agreement to begin next week, however,
models differ wrt location and strength of a longwave trough.
Nevertheless, good chances for showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Monday as a trough swings through the Mississippi
Valley. However, the degree of instability ahead of the trough and
attendant cold front is still very much in question. At this
point, it appears that a least a few strong storms will be
possible on Monday, owing to the upper level support. Will go
ahead and add strong storms to the severe weather potential statement for now. Hopefully the
models can resolve this weekend's pattern soon so we can gain
confidence in the potential for severe weather next week.
VFR conditions continue at all sites for this taf period. Strong
north winds will taper off by 00z. Mkl has the potential to see
some patchy fog between 08-12z. Mostly clear skies tomorrow with
light north winds.