Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 231957
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
Short term (tonight-thursday)...a weak frontal boundary will
continue to move tonight into South Florida, as high pressure
continues to build into Lake Okeechobee region. This will allow
for a light easterly wind flow to set up over South Florida later
tonight. There will still be some low level moisture over the
region leading to some fog development late tonight especially
over the interior and West Coast Metro areas. Therefore, patchy
fog will remain in the forecast for these areas overnight.
For Thursday, large scale troughing will continue to dominate the
central US while the now semi-stationary front over South Florida
begins to lift back north as a warm front. Meanwhile, increasing
pressure gradients will bring breezy east-southeast winds, which will favor
some East Coast showers in the evening and afternoon showers over
the interior. Temperatures remain on the warm side, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Friday into this weekend...
After the aforementioned diffuse frontal boundary lifts out of
the vicinity of South Florida late this week into the weekend, the
wind will begin to veer towards a southeasterly direction and
increase in magnitude, allowing for Richer tropical moisture to
advect towards South Florida overnight Friday into early Saturday.
In addition, the global model guidance suggests that a surface
trough will break off from a tropical wave and progress
northwestward over the southern portions of South Florida, further
increasing the potential for heavy rain showers and potentially
even isolated thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday morning.
By Saturday afternoon, the surface trough should continue to
progress northwestward towards another approaching frontal
boundary from the western Gulf of Mexico. As the trough lifts
northwestward, daytime heating combined with the moisture feed
setup over South Florida by this surface feature will allow for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day on
Saturday. This evolution of the weather pattern should bring
increasing rain chances across most of South Florida throughout
this weeekend, with the greatest coverage expected over the East
Coast Metro Friday into Saturday and over the interior portions
and Gulf Coast on Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to remain
slightly above average during this period with southerly flow.
Monday through Wednesday...
By next week, there is a significant spread between the global model
guidance regarding the synoptic weather pattern over the
southeastern conus; however, a consensus of model solutions
suggests that the aforementioned approaching frontal boundary over
the western Gulf of Mexico will stall out in the vicinity of
northern Florida, allowing for light southerly surface winds
across South Florida and a continuation of an unsettled weather
pattern. The evolution of this frontal boundary will greatly
dictate the amount of moisture advection over South Florida next
week and therefore the overall chances for scattered to widespread
rain showers and even some isolated thunderstorms.
a cold front moving into the northern coastal waters will stall
tonight. The front will then move back to the north as a warm
front late this week as high pressure builds into the area from
the east. Winds will continue to increase out of the east
northeast tonight with breezy conditions late this week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local
waters through this weekend.
easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue over most of the taf
sites before going light and variable tonight. The only exception
is at kapf taf site where the winds will be westerly this afternoon.
The weather will also remain dry along with VFR conditions at
most of the taf sites through tonight. The only exception is that
the kapf and ktmb taf sites could see some MVFR conditions late
tonight due to possible fog formation.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 77 89 76 85 / 10 30 40 50
Fort Lauderdale 79 88 78 85 / 10 20 30 40
Miami 78 89 77 86 / 10 20 20 40
Naples 76 89 75 86 / 10 10 20 50