Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 190737
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
337 am EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Today through Sunday...
Tropical storm Nestor continues over the Gulf of Mexico with a
asymmetrical appearance on satellite this morning. Convection
remains focused to the east and southeast of the center of Nestor. A
warm front has advanced into central Florida, allowing for warm,
moist air to spread back across south and central Florida overnight.
An area of strong, deep convection is west of the peninsula over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The primary concerns Saturday will be the threat of strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing tornadic activity and the
potential for a band of storms that could sit near the Atlantic
coast. Starting first with the threat of tornadoes, low level wind
shear will continue to increase over the coming hours as Nestor
pushes north and east. 0-1 km storm relative helicity values
exceeding 100 m2/s2 in the Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis are pointing towards
this trend with these elevated effective srh values spreading
eastward across the peninsula as the morning continues according to
As convection develops and is able to tap into the supportive shear
environment, supercellular structures are anticipated on radar
through the morning. Besides these discrete cells, the line of
vigorous convection over the Gulf will push into the peninsula this
morning and progress slowly eastward through the day. Embedded
supercells within the line of storms will also be capable of
producing tornadic activity today.
This afternoon, the storms could come into phase with some low level
wind shear and mid-level support which could provide a potential
environment for strong to severe storms over the East Coast Metro.
With the potential for a band of persistent convection capable of
producing torrential rainfall, there is a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall which could lead to flood concerns over portions of the
East Coast Metro.
As the remnants of Nestor race north and east, the frontal boundary
propelling the line of convection will stall over southern Florida.
Moisture over the region will still be capable of supporting
convection again and diurnal heating on Sunday will allow
temperatures to warm more than Saturday.
Sunday night through Saturday...
Seasonal and benign conditions are expected early next week as
weak surface high pressure nestles in behind tropical storm Nestor
while the aforementioned cold front stalls near the Lake
Okeechobee region before fizzling out. Rain chances increase by
mid-week as a cold front approaches the area. By late week, the
front is forecast to stall somewhere in the vicinity of the
Florida Straits. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible by
week's end along with shower chances given the front in the
hazardous marine conditions are expected for the Gulf waters
through tonight as tropical storm Nestor barrels towards the
Florida Panhandle. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
Gulf waters through late tonight due to elevated winds and seas.
Cautionary conditions are also expected for the Atlantic waters
and Lake Okeechobee during this time. Showers and thunderstorms,
some potentially strong, will increase in coverage this morning
into the weekend across all local waters. Seas in the Gulf will be
slow to subside on Sunday as residual swells from Nestor continue
to move toward the coast.
there could be some rain showers/ts development overnight, especially at
kapf, as bands from tropical storm Nestor move onshore from the
Gulf. Overnight fog could be an issue at fog- prone terminals
like apf and tmb. Sub- VFR conditions are possible with morning
fog and any convection that impacts a terminal. Confidence is too
low to introduce any restrictions with this issuance; short-fused
amendments will likely be necessary. More shower and thunderstorm
activity will redevelop across the area during the day and periods
of MVFR/IFR are possible during this time frame. Breezy S winds.
hazardous beach conditions are anticipated along the Gulf Coast
as tropical storm Nestor barrels towards the Florida Panhandle
today. There is a high risk for rip currents through Sunday, with
minor coastal flooding possible through the first half of Sunday
due to onshore flow and increased swells.
Location date forecast hi-min record
Naples 19 Oct 76 78 in 1968
West Palm Beach 19 Oct 76 80 in 2018
Fort Lauderdale 19 Oct 78 79 in 2013
Miami 19 Oct 78 79 in 1970
Naples 20 Oct 76 76 in 2013
West Palm Beach 20 Oct 76 78 in 2017
Fort Lauderdale 20 Oct 79 79 in 1993
Miami 20 Oct 78 80 in 1969
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 86 76 89 76 / 50 30 70 20
Fort Lauderdale 87 78 89 78 / 50 30 40 10
Miami 88 78 89 77 / 40 20 30 10
Naples 86 76 88 75 / 50 60 50 10
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz069.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for gmz656-657-676.