Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 161917
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
317 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
a stray shower or two will be possible this afternoon,
particularly along the East Coast seabreeze that has begun to
develop. Seabreeze shouldn't make it very far inland today with
the SW flow in place. A cold front pushing southward through North
Florida will cause rain chances to increase again heading into
tomorrow, with showers possible in the morning and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Steering flow should
keep the best chances for rainfall over the East Coast with the
front eventually stalling out somewhere across the area.
Light to calm winds overnight could lead to some patchy fog across
the interior early Thursday morning before dissipating after
a low pressure system developing in the southwest Gulf, is
forecast to move north northeast, towards the central Gulf Coast
of the US. This low should interact with the cold front that moves
through tomorrow, lifting it back north as a warm front. This will
keep showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the end of
the week, and into the weekend.
The low is slow to progress away from the coast, and is not very
developed by the weekend, but does slide east, over the
Georgia/South Carolina coast over the weekend. The GFS is more
progressive with the system than the European model (ecmwf). The GFS solution
brings another cold front through the area Saturday night,
keeping chances for showers and a few thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday morning. However, the European model (ecmwf) is slower,
and further north with the system on Sunday, having it move north
over North Carolina and dissipating, keeping showers in the
forecast into the beginning of next week. It has a stronger
frontal system moving towards the area next week, causing the
boundary over the Florida Peninsula, which is remnant from the
previous low, moving north, bringing quieter weather for Monday to
South Florida. It the moves a stronger front through the region
by the middle of next week, bringing showers and back into the
forecast by Tuesday afternoon.
Overall, even though the GFS and European model (ecmwf) handle the fronts somewhat
differently, including position and timing, they seem to be
similar with precipitation for next week, with Monday being
fairly quiet and a stronger frontal system bringing active
weather back on Tuesday and Wednesday.
marine conditions are forecast to be mostly benign through the
remainder of the week. An approaching cold front is forecast to
slow and stall over the area, keeping the mention of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for the next several days. Another
front is forecast to move into the area, from the west, bringing
increased wind and seas to the Gulf waters by late Friday evening.
This front will cause seas to build in the Gulf for the weekend,
with seas of around 6 to 7 feet in the off shore Gulf waters this
weekend. The Atlantic waters are not forecast to see any
significant increase through the beginning of next week, although
showers and thunderstorms are also possible for the Atlantic
waters as well.
mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some patchy
fog will be possible across the interior early Thursday morning,
but only included a mention in kapf and ktmb for now since
confidence is not high. Rain chances increase some tomorrow with
showers beginning in the morning and scattered thunderstorms in
the afternoon as a front pushes into the area. Higher coverage
expected for the East Coast terminals.
the Spring tide is forecast to bring some minor flooding to some
of the coastal areas once again this evening. However, the moon
is waning, and therefore tide levels are coming back down with
each cycle. The coastal flood statement is still in effect through
06z tonight. Before extending the statement, will see what
imp[acts the next high tide has along the coast this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 74 87 74 84 / 10 60 30 40
Fort Lauderdale 76 87 76 85 / 10 60 30 50
Miami 76 88 75 85 / 10 50 20 50
Naples 76 87 73 85 / 20 30 20 40