Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 101046
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
546 am EST Tue Dec 10 2019
generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few
brief showers will be possible along the East Coast sites, and some
fog will be possible across the interior both this morning and
Prev discussion... /issued 349 am EST Tue Dec 10 2019/
Short term (today through Wednesday night)...
some fog has begun to develop across portions of the interior this
morning and could become dense in a few places before dissipating
after sunrise. Breezy southeasterly flow is expected today as
surface high pressure continues to push eastward over the Atlantic
and a cold front pushes into the state. Increasing moisture out
ahead of this front will allow for a few showers to develop today
and tonight, primarily along the East Coast. The increased moisture
will likely allow for more fog development across the interior
overnight tonight and again could become dense in some areas. The
front will ultimately stall out to the north over central Florida
tomorrow, with deeper moisture remaining overhead. This will lead to
a slight increase in showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a
few thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday and Friday...
The stalled frontal zone to the north of the County Warning Area will assist in
keeping elevated moisture across the region along with some lift.
This will promote the development of rain showers on Thursday and
Friday that may be diurnally enhanced. Instability associated with
this frontal zone will be limited over south florida; however,
differential heating over the interior and southern portions of
the peninsula may allow for the development of isolated thunderstorms.
Throughout the day on Friday, a major shortwave trough is forecast
to progress east-southeast towards the northern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough
traverses over the aforementioned frontal zone, cyclogenesis will
likely materialize near The Big Bend region of Florida. Dynamic
lift associated with this new area of low pressure is forecast to
remain north of the County Warning Area on Friday as it lifts to the NE. Therefore,
this feature will likely enhance rain showers on Friday due to a
brief increase in moisture advection and mass convergence over
This weekend into early next week...
By early this weekend, the aforementioned area of low pressure
will continue to lift NE, dragging a weak frontal boundary across
Florida. This will allow for elevated moisture to stick around
over South Florida and promote the development of rain showers
across the area on Saturday. By Sunday, drier air will advect
over the peninsula as high pressure briefly builds over the
region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday due to the
passage of this weak frontal boundary.
By next Tuesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over
the mid-south and progress eastward. This will lead to a well-
defined frontal boundary approaching South Florida by the end of
the forecast period, bringing additional rain showers across the
generally benign boating conditions are expected for the next
several days. Conditions deteriorate across the Atlantic waters
Thursday as northeasterly swell from a deepening low off the Continental U.S.
East Coast arrives to our local waters. This swell will cause wave
heights to increase to around 6 to 9 feet, with the highest in the
Gulf Stream. The influence from the swell is short-lived, and benign
marine conditions are expected for the weekend and into early next
a high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Palm beaches today
with a moderate risk forecast for the rest of the Atlantic beaches
due to breezy southeasterly winds. Northeast swell will likely cause
an increased rip current risk and rough surf for the Atlantic
beaches, primarily the Palm beaches, Thursday and Friday of this
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 82 70 82 69 / 10 30 40 50
Fort Lauderdale 82 72 82 71 / 10 20 30 40
Miami 83 72 83 71 / 10 20 30 30
Naples 83 67 82 67 / 10 10 30 20
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for flz168.