Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 141955
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
355 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
..coastal flood advisory through Tuesday morning East Coast
..wetter pattern expected late this week into next weekend...
High pressure will remain over the Florida Peninsula tonight
into Tuesday, as a stationary front remains over the southeastern
United States. This will allow for the drier air over the western
Atlantic waters to work into South Florida tonight into Tuesday on
the light easterly wind flow. The precipitable water values will also fall
from around 1.6 inches this afternoon to 1.2 to 1.4 inches on
Tuesday which is around the 25 percentile range for this time of
year. Therefore, the weather should remain dry over South Florida
through Tuesday, except for some showers and a few thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening hours over the West Coast Metro
areas where the sea breezes collide.
A weak low will develop along the frontal boundary by the middle
of this week before moving into the western Atlantic waters late
this week. This will push the frontal boundary southward down the
Florida Peninsula and into South Florida. Therefore, the steering
flow will become south/southwest for the middle to end of this
week over South Florida allowing for moisture to work into the
region from the south. Therefore, pops will be on an increase
for the middle of this week and be in the scattered to numerous
range late this week over South Florida with the best coverage
over the East Coast Metro areas.
Temperatures will also be able to get to around 90 degrees over
the interior and East Coast Metro areas for the middle to end of
the week due to the south southwest steering flow. These highs
will be near the record highs for this time of year over the East
Coast Metro areas.
The long range models are showing a possible low developing in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week moving to the north
northeast towards the central Gulf Coast states. This low should
pull the frontal boundary back northward this weekend allowing for
the steering flow to become more southerly over South Florida.
This will allow for the deeper moisture to remain over South
Florida this weekend leading to the scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day with the best coverage over the Lake
Easterly winds less than 10 knots will become south southwest by
midweek before going light and variable late this week. At the
same time, the northeast swells of 3 to 5 feet this afternoon will
continue to subside tonight into Tuesday and should be gone by
middle of this week. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to
subside from 2 to 5 feet tonight to less than 2 feet by middle to
end of the week. The Gulf seas will also remain at 2 feet or less
for the week.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with a
few showers possible today. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled
out, primarily over southwest Florida this afternoon.
northeast swells in the Atlantic waters are still leading to
above normal high tides of around 1 foot today. The above normal
high tides will continue tonight before slowly decreasing on
Tuesday and should be gone by mid week. Therefore, the coastal
flood advisory will continue for the East Coast beaches of South
Florida through Tuesday morning.
The beach patrols along the East Coast beaches of South Florida
reported a moderate rip current risk today. The threat of rip
currents will slowly decrease through the middle of the week, as
the northeast swells decreases. Therefore, the high risk of rip
currents will be allowed to expired this evening for the East
Coast beaches of South Florida.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 87 72 90 / 0 10 0 20
Fort Lauderdale 75 85 73 90 / 0 10 0 20
Miami 74 87 73 91 / 0 0 0 20
Naples 73 88 74 86 / 30 0 0 20
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-
Coastal flood advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for flz168-172-173.