Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS63 KMKX 152047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
247 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019


Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is high. 

A rather moist mid level trof axis will drift across the area 
tonight...associated with the bigger system staying well south of 
Wisconsin. It looks like it could produce some flurries for a 
time, mainly south of Milwaukee and Madison. We may even see a 
dusting of accumulation southwest of Madison. None of this will 
have any impact on travel for Monday morning. This is a brief 
event and will be south and east of the area by the morning 
commute. The clouds spreading across the area will keep temps in 
check tonight, though still chilly in the teens. Winds will be
light or calm into Monday morning. 


Monday Night through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is High...

The system to the south will push east/northeast ushering in some 
cooler and drier air behind it as light winds turn to the northwest. 
The upper level low will continue pushing southeast into the great 
lakes region Tuesday. This will actually bring a chance for some 
light snow Tuesday night but given fairly dry air in the lower 
levels not much, if anything, is expected. Wednesday will see high 
pressure push in as the upper level low pulls out to the east. 

Generally quiet conditions are expected through this period with 
mostly dry conditions though some cooler temperatures are likely, 
especially Tuesday night. 

Thursday through Sunday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

This period continues to look fairly quiet at the moment with an 
upper level ridge dominating the region Thursday. However, models 
are indicating that an upper level low will move through the region 
late next week, which will areas of low pressure, however, models 
remain mostly dry due to the dominance of dry air, especially near 
the surface. If we can get any sort of influx of moisture the 
situation late next week could change but for now dry conditions 
are expected. Otherwise temperatures for this period look to be more 
mild for this time of year.



High pressure across the area while low pressure moves through the
southern Ohio Valley region. VFR conditions and winds less than 10
knots are expected through the TAF period. Some mid and high level
clouds will push through the region during the period. We could
see some flurries from about 05-10z tonight, but no accumulation
is expected. 



No Gale Force winds are expected this week. High pressure will 
slide east across central and southern Lake Michigan tonight, 
while low pressure tracks north of Lake Superior. Overall, light 
westerly winds are expected across the lake tonight, though 
somewhat gusty conditions should be found across the northern 
basin of the lake. Light winds continue Monday into Monday 
evening, but will increase out of the west to northwest by 
Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens up across the 
western Great Lakes. This gradient is due to broad low pressure to
the east and high pressure building in from the west. Brisk winds
will continue Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Lighter 
winds return for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations