Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
257 am EDT Tue Sep 24 2019
today and tonight...sig drying trend ascd with high pressure just
north of the area will bring a sunny and warm day with winds
lighter than past days. A modest onshore flow will develop along
the coast by mid day with temps making it well into the 80s this
aftn. A few 90 degree readings will be possible inland and urban
sites with the only hazard the continued presence of rip currents
at Atlantic beaches due to some lingering swell. Winds will abate
with nightfall, leaving pleasantly cool readings by early Wed in
the mid to upper 60s and only a few clouds.
Wed-Wed night...deep layer high pressure ridging remains across the
Florida Peninsula with continued very warm temperatures aloft (700-
500mb). Still rather unimpressive precipitable water values in the 1.00-1.25 inch
range. Weak surface high pressure influence continues across the
area with a weak pressure gradient in place. Continue to keep pops
absent from the forecast. Light/variable to calm morning winds
transition to onshore through the day areawide while remaining
light. Highs in the u80s near the coast and 90 to l90s further into
the interior. Lows will drop into the u60s to around 70 inland and
l-m70s along the immediate coast.
Thu-Mon...deep layer ridging breaks down a bit with the approach of
a mid-level closed low across the Bahamas. This feature begins to
break down, itself, Thu overnight as it is pulled northward and
dampens over the western Atlc. High pressure ridging quickly, again,
re-establishes itself across the peninsula through late work-week
and into the weekend, though it lifts northward into the Mississippi
Valley late in the weekend and early next week with some lowering
mid-level heights returning late in the period. Moisture remains
rather meager, though a slow and gradual trend upward continues into
the weekend. Generally only a schc/20pct for precip (showers) on
Fri/Sat with a slight bump up to low end chance (30pct) on sun and
probably the greatest chance areawide on Mon (30-40pct). Should
continue to see a daily sea breeze circulation moving inland each
day with onshore flow dominant each afternoon. Also continue to keep
precip labeled as showery with absent of thunder mention for now.
Highs in the M-u80s near the coast and u80s to l90s further into the
interior. Lows in the u60s to l70s Thu morning as a warming trend
kicks in the remainder of the period with overnight mins in the l-M
70s, except some u70s possible near the coast as onshore flow
becomes better established.
Aviation...VFR conds the next 24h with afternoon winds 7-12kts.
today and tonight...will keep a caution stmt for small craft near
the Gulf Stream for combination of wind and seas this morning.
Countering winds 10 kts or less will keep a choppy sea state near
6 ft with seas around 4 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf Stream. Seas
are expected to be below headline conditions by this evening.
Wed-Sat...generally weak high pressure across the area with
associated ridge axis established north of the local coastal waters
providing an onshore flow. Wind speeds continue to remain at or below 15
kts. An East Coast sea breeze should develop and push inland each
afternoon. Seas initially 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 feet north of
Sebastian Inlet subsiding to 2-3 feet areawide Thu morning
continuing into Sat. Rain chances very low through the day on Thu
with a slight chance or chance shower threat returning gradually Thu
night into Sat from south to the north across the local waters.
a river Flood Warning remains in effect for the St Johns River at
Astor. The river level on the St Johns River at Astor is forecast
to slowly decline while remaining just above flood stage during
the mid to late week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 86 66 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
mco 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
mlb 87 66 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
vrb 87 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
Lee 90 69 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
sfb 91 67 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
orl 90 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
fpr 87 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0