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FXUS62 KMLB 231926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019


Cool front draped near southern part of Lake Okeechobee this
afternoon and Low level flow has veered quickly to the NE behind
it. Showers and a few storms over the coastal waters offshore the
Treasure coast. Latest meso model runs and satellite trends less
enthusiastic about storms over land areas in EC FL this afternoon
and just a few showers have pushed onshore. Expect area of 
showers reaching onshore to increase and spread northward during 
tonight have indicated scattered PoPs for Martin northward through
Brevard Co for the overnight hours. Overnight min temps inland 
will range from mid 60s north to lower 70s south, while onshore 
flow near the coast will hold mins to near 70/lower 70s north and 
mid 70s south.

Previous forecast discussion follows...
Thu-Fri...Ridge across the Southeast U.S. builds off the Mid-
Atlantic coast into late week with low level winds veering more 
easterly. This flow will modify the drier and cooler airmass in 
place, with moisture and rain chances increasing back across the 
area. Scattered onshore moving showers expected in the breezy 
easterly flow, with sufficient instability for a few storms to also 
develop mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs will be near to a 
few degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows 
remaining well above normal in the low to mid 70s.  

Sat-Tue...Model guidance finally coming into better agreement 
through the weekend. Closed low aloft over the central U.S. develops 
low pressure at the surface that lifts N/NE from the Lower MS Valley 
and drags a front through the southeast states. Mid-level ridge 
still extending across Florida blocks the front from moving through 
the area, however, with a warm and moist airmass remaining in place 
across the region. This will keep scattered showers and isolated 
afternoon storms in the forecast through early next week, with PoPs 
continuing around 40-50 percent. Temperatures to remain above normal 
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 70s. 
Latest GFS does develop a deeper trough into early next week that 
allows the front to move through the region into Tuesday, but the 
ECMWF holds on to a stronger ridge that keeps front to the north.


BKN035-BKN040 ceilings will continue for coastal terminals the 
remainder of today with these expected to expand toward the 
interior terminals later this afternoon and tonight. 
Shower/isolated storm chances will be confined to VRB-SUA this 
afternoon through early overnight before shower chances lift 
northward to MLB and TIX tonight. Increasing onshore flow may bring 
shower chances inland toward SFB and MCO as early as Thursday 
morning. There could be some embedded lower ceilings tonight in the 
2000-2500 ft range but will just introduce with SCT for now.


Tonight...Winds will veer toward the ENE tonight and will keep
caution headlines up for most of the area with 15-20kt winds then
decreasing a bit in the overnight hours. Seas up to 6 feet
offshore legs and southern nearshore leg. Scattered showers
and a few storms through the overnight hours.  

Thu-Sun...(previous) Ridge north of the area into late week will 
generate a moderate to fresh onshore breeze across the waters, 
with speeds increasing up to 15-20 knots. This will lead to poor 
boating conditions especially Friday-Friday night with seas 
building up to 6 feet. Winds gradually veer to the southeast and 
south through the weekend with wind speeds decreasing and seas 
falling to around 3-5 feet Saturday and 2-4 feet on Sunday. 


DAB  70  82  74  83 /  10  50  40  50 
MCO  70  85  72  87 /  10  50  20  50 
MLB  74  84  76  85 /  40  50  40  50 
VRB  75  85  76  85 /  50  50  30  50 
LEE  66  85  71  87 /   0  40  20  40 
SFB  69  85  72  87 /  10  50  30  50 
ORL  70  85  72  88 /  10  50  20  50 
FPR  74  85  76  85 /  40  30  30  40 




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