Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 141914
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
314 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
..high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
Rest of today-tonight...a high risk of rip currents continues
through sunset for all east central Florida beaches. It is
strongly advised to not enter the surf. Mostly dry across the
area aside from a sprinkle or two in western Martin County and
around Lake Okeechobee. Another night of seasonable temperatures
is expected with overnight lows in the upper 60s inland and low
70s along the coast.
Tuesday-Wednesday (modified previous discussion)...ridge
responsible for fair conditions to start the week will move
seaward as low level winds veer slightly south. Despite some
increase in moisture the airmass will remain to stable to support
a mentionable rain chance. It will be seasonably warm with highs
in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. A
developing surface low north of the state early Wednesday will
move off the mid-Atlantic coast by late Wednesday. The feature
will drag a frontal boundary near North Florida late Wednesday night.
Increasing instability associated with this upstream feature will
bring a chance of showers, especially across northern zones by
Wednesday afternoon, with a storm or two possible by late
afternoon. Upper level forcing dosen't appear to suggest any
widespread rainfall, with isolated convection around Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Thursday-Sunday (modified previous discussion)...the surface
boundary is shown settling across the central or southern
peninsula late in the week with moisture convergence and perhaps
some forcing from above with potential for isolated storms
Thursday and Friday as a mid level disturbance or two moves across
the region. Will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast
through the period of the weekend, with uncertainty on any favored
area for measurable daily rains due to placement of surface
features. Considerable cloud cover should keep temp range near to
slightly below normal.
VFR conditions will prevail.
Sfc winds: thru 15/00z...E/NE 6-9kts. Btwn 15/00z-15/03z...bcmg vrbl
at or below 3kts. Btwn 15/13z-15/16z...bcmg east/southeast 7-10kts.
rest of today-tonight...good boating conditions, light east winds
5-10 knots with seas 3-4 feet.
Tuesday-Wednesday...onshore winds 10 knots or less on Tuesday will
veer to the south and increase to 10-15 knots on Wednesday,
especially north of the cape, as a weak front approaches the
area. Seas average 3-4 feet with slightly higher seas offshore.
Scattered shower and perhaps a few lightning storms will be
possible Wednesday afternoon as the front arrives.
Thursday-Friday...weak front moving near the marine area mid to
late week will keep favorable conditions with no headlines for
wind or seas expected. Seas 2-3 feet by Wednesday night, lasting
through Friday. Winds 10 knot or less expected. Rain chances
increase with afternoon showers possible.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 71 84 71 86 / 0 10 0 40
mco 70 87 70 87 / 0 10 0 30
mlb 73 85 71 88 / 0 0 0 20
vrb 72 85 70 89 / 10 10 0 20
Lee 71 87 73 87 / 0 10 10 40
sfb 69 87 71 88 / 0 10 0 30
orl 70 86 72 87 / 0 10 0 30
fpr 73 85 70 89 / 10 10 0 20