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fxus62 kmlb 180032 
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
832 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Discussion...
weak front will remain stalled across the Florida Peninsula near
Lake Okeechobee tonight, and could see a few showers develop
along this boundary, mainly over the waters of the Treasure Coast.
Otherwise it will remain dry with increasing high clouds expected
overnight. Lows will range from the lower 60s across the far north
to the low to mid 70s along the immediate Treasure Coast.

Friday-Sunday...(previous discussion) the forecast through
Saturday night will hinge on the exact track and strength of
potential tropical cyclone (ptc) 16 which will move northeast
across the central Gomex and southeast Continental U.S.. the system looks to be
asymmetric with most of its weather on its NE-east side. The stalled
front will lift back north as a warm front Friday evening, with
the main precip event occurring overnight into early Saturday
morning. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) have high pops (70-80 percent) Friday
night and Saturday so have increased rain chances accordingly.
Increasing low level shear will produce a risk of isolated
tornadoes Friday night and early Sat. Then another round of heavy
rain may occur Sat aftn as the front pushes back through the area.
Drier air should overspread the area Sunday, at least across the
north, with decreasing wind speeds out of the W/SW.

Max temps look to be near climo Fri-Sat and above climo sun.
Above normal mins through the period.

&&

Aviation...mainly VFR overnight into Friday morning. As showers
and isolated storms begin to increase across the area through the
afternoon hours, tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will become possible
with this activity.

&&

Marine...north to northeast winds 5-10 knots early this evening
will veer northeast to east overnight with speeds around 10 knots
south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 62 79 71 82 / 0 30 80 80
mco 68 82 72 84 / 10 40 80 80
mlb 69 83 77 84 / 10 40 70 80
vrb 72 84 75 85 / 10 50 70 70
Lee 65 79 71 83 / 10 50 80 80
sfb 65 81 70 84 / 10 40 80 80
orl 68 81 71 83 / 10 40 80 80
fpr 70 85 76 86 / 10 50 60 70

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

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