Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 060807
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
307 am EST Fri Dec 6 2019
today-tonight...another mostly clear day for east central Florida
to end the work week. A high pressure centered northeast of the
state, will continue to move east today, shifting the local wind
flow from the southeast to south by afternoon as the ridge extends
toward the peninsula. A brief sea breeze will develop after mid-
afternoon but winds are only increasing to 8-10 kt across the
coastal areas and return to light and variable before sunset. For
tonight, a low will be moving over the northeast U.S. With its
associated trough extending south but it will remain north of the
local area, leaving east central Florida under a weak pressure gradient
through the night. Temperatures will bounce up from a cool
morning today to highs in the mid 70s and cool down again tonight
to lows near 50 across the interior and mid 50s along the coast.
Saturday-Sunday...a weakening cold front will approach from the
north and wash out somewhere over central Florida by Saturday evening.
While this happens, a strong high pressure will build over the
northeastern U.S., And a weak surface low/inverted trough will
develop well to our east along what is left of the frontal boundary.
As the boundary moves into central Florida and the weak low/trough
develops the pressure gradient will tighten bringing an increase in
north/north-northeast winds. Expecting some low-topped shower activity to increase
over the Atlantic by late Saturday but think the airmass will remain
too dry over land to support precip. All in all Saturday should be
nice with skies beginning mostly sunny, but cloud cover will
increase north of Orlando during the afternoon as some higher
moisture moves in with the boundary. Highs generally in the mid 70s
except low 70s for the Volusia coast.
Strengthening onshore flow will start to bring showers onshore from
Saturday evening into the overnight with highest chances (30-40%)
across northern Brevard and Volusia counties. Rain chances
gradually taper off inland and farther south. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 50s to around 60 inland and lows 60s for the
coast and Metro Orlando.
The inverted surface trough will approach Florida from the east on Sunday
with continued highest rain chances along the coast north of
Melbourne. High temps again in the mid 70s, but some spots along the
Treasure Coast could see some upper 70s.
Monday-Thursday...as the surface inverted trough lifts north and up
the eastern Seaboard, some drier air again moves into east central
Florida on Mon-tues giving US a rain-free forecast. The Atlantic
ridge axis becomes re-established across central Florida providing a
southerly flow and allowing temperatures to climb into the low 80s.
The next cold front will approach and (possibly) move through the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame. The GFS has been
consistently showing the front clearing the area, and now the 00z
ecwmf shows a frontal passage as well. There is a little more
confidence in this solution now with both models on board. Moisture
is not overly impressive with this front, and will advertise 20-30%
shower chances during this time with chances decreasing from north
to south through the day on Wednesday behind the front. By
Wednesday night into Thursday both models have strengthening high
pressure building in across the mid-Atlantic giving US breezy
onshore flow and another chance of coastal showers. Max temps low to
mid 70s Wednesday and slightly cooler Thursday. Wednesday could be
even cooler depending on the amount of lingering cloud cover behind
the front. Overnight lows upper 50s to low 60s.
VFR conditions will prevail today with light and variable winds in
the morning then picking up to 5-8 kt by late morning from the south
and southwest by early afternoon. Coastal terminals will experience
a brief sea breeze between 20-23z returning to light and variable by
today-tonight...a high pressure exiting the Carolinas this morning,
will shift east towards the Atlantic later today, which will veer
local winds from the east this morning to south by early
afternoon and southwest in the late afternoon. But these will
remain light through the night. Seas will range 2 to 3 ft.
Saturday-Sunday...high pressure building down along the eastern U.S.
Coast and a developing inverted surface trough/weak low will produce
an increasing onshore flow through the weekend, initially out of the
NE around 5-10 knots Saturday increasing to to around 15 knots out
of the east-northeast into Saturday night and Sunday. Seas will also
build from around 2-3 feet Saturday to 3-5 feet (possibly 6 ft) by
Monday-Wednesday...a light southerly flow will develop early next
week with the surface ridge axis draped across the waters, but
persistent northeasterly swell will keep seas 4-5 feet. The next
front looks to pass through the waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday with poor to hazardous boating conditions developing
behind it with breezy northeasterly winds and building seas.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 74 54 72 62 / 0 0 10 40
mco 76 53 75 62 / 0 0 10 20
mlb 76 56 76 64 / 0 0 0 20
vrb 75 55 76 63 / 10 0 0 20
Lee 75 52 74 59 / 0 0 10 10
sfb 76 52 75 60 / 0 0 10 20
orl 76 54 75 62 / 0 0 10 20
fpr 76 54 76 63 / 10 0 0 20