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fxus62 kmlb 181956 
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

..rain chances increase tonight. Potential for a few
severe storms/tornadoes from late this eve into early Sat
as front lifts northward through ec Florida...



Discussion...

Through tonight-Saturday...only a few light showers/sprinkles
over ec Florida as of mid afternoon. This will change this evening as
frontal boundary draped across Lake Okeechobee region lifts
northward as tropical storm Nestor moves NE over the Gulf of
Mexico. Latest NHC forecast of Nestor brings the center onshore
the western Florida Panhandle early Sat around daybreak. System will
then lift NE rapidly up through the southeast Continental U.S. Saturday. Strong mid-
upper forcing continues into mid day before pulling NE of the
area late in the day. 0-1km helicity values which start off around
150-200m2/s2 osecola/Brevard cos late this evening extending
northward overnight and increasing to arnd 200-300m2/s2
lake/Volusia Sat midday. This supports a threat for rotating
storms/isold tornadoes, especially across the north half of the
County Warning Area. Pops were kept at categorical (80-90) through Sat. Precip
coverage will begin decreasing from northwest-southeast during Sat afternoon.

Saturday night-Sunday...(edited previous) latest NHC forecast for
Nestor brings center of the Post-tropical system into NC by
sunrise sun, then offshore the mid Atlantic coast late in the day.Some
lingering showers possible, mainly in the evening as some mid
level vort spokes rotate across the region. Isolated to scattered
diurnally forced showers may redevelop sun, mainly early, before
activity wanes as drier air filters into the region. Temps M-u80s
/u60s- l70s for sun.

Monday-Thursday...(previous) an amplifying mid-upper trough will
move east from the central Continental U.S. Mon-Tue through the eastern Continental U.S.
Through mid week, temporarily flattening the southeast Continental U.S. Ridge,
before it rebuilds into late week. Weak surface high pressure
which settles in behind the departing weekend low weakens and
shifts east ahead of a cold front, which sags through ecfl Tue
night. North of the front, high pressure ridge will build from the
southeast Continental U.S. Eastward into the western Atlantic. Brief northerly Post
frontal wind surge will push a short lived pool of drier/cooler
air across the region through Wed before winds veer quickly to NE
late Wednesday and east-northeast-east Thursday.

Lingering shower/storm chances Mon-Tue, then drying out starting
Wed, with a small marine shower threat for the far south through
Thu night. Above normal temps through Tue ahead of the cool front,
followed by cooler (near normal) maxes Wed-Thu, but mins remaining
near to above normal, especially along the coast, as winds quickly
veer onshore.

&&

Aviation...prevailing VFR thru the afternoon, with brief MVFR
reductions for northern terminals in light rain showers. After 20z, sct
rain showers will push northeast from the Gulf Coast as ts Nestor
approaches the peninsula. Models favor coverage for interior
terminals from 00-06z, where MVFR/IFR conditions possible as
showers push to the coast. Rain showers/iso thunderstorms and rain prevailing overnight,
with increasing winds as Nestor moves closer. Mention of wind
shear may need to be added for overnight hours, as sfc wind should
remain below 10 kt before increasing towards daybreak. Confidence
is low for severe wx overnight and early Saturday, thus not
including in taf at this time.



&&

Marine...

Tonight...winds will veer to southeast-south-southeast and increase tonight as
tropical storm Nestor moves NE over the Gulf. An Small Craft Advisory will be in
effect for nearshore/offshore legs from Sebastian northward after
10 PM, with cautionary headlines added to the southern legs for
increasing winds overnight. Also added a mention in for a few
gusts to gale force for 20-60 nm offshore Volusia coast for late
tonight. Seas will build in response to the increasing winds with
showers and squalls adding to the inclement conditions.

Saturday-Tuesday...(edited previous) Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue
for the northern and central waters through Sat-Sat night and will
likely need caution headlines again south of Sebastian Inlet.
Added in a mention for a few gusts to gale force Saturday morning
for the leg 20-60 nm offshore Volusia coast. Winds/seas quickly
subside sun as Stout SW-west flow rapidly slackens behind the
departing surface low. Winds and seas briefly increase again Tue
ahead of the next fropa, followed by quick wind shift and surge
out of the north-NE late Tue night, which may warrant cautionary
headlines.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 71 84 69 83 / 90 90 30 10
mco 70 84 70 87 / 90 90 30 20
mlb 74 84 73 86 / 80 90 30 30
vrb 75 83 74 86 / 90 90 40 40
Lee 68 83 68 85 / 90 80 30 10
sfb 69 84 69 85 / 90 90 30 20
orl 70 84 70 86 / 90 90 30 20
fpr 74 83 74 86 / 90 90 40 40

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 am EDT Sunday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

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