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fxus64 kmob 150553 aac 
afdmob

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1153 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
06z issuance...IFR ceilings over approximately the eastern half
of the area will persist for much of the night then improve to VFR
conditions by about midday Friday. VFR conditions are otherwise
expected over the area. Patches of light rain will gradually
diminish over the area overnight. Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots
overnight increase to 10 to 15 knots on Friday, with the higher
values near the coast. /29

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1042 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Discussion...see updated information for land areas below.

Update...have updated to adjust pops for latest trends, and am
still expecting the numerous patches of rain to gradually
decrease in coverage from west to east overnight. Made additional
adjustments to temperature/dewpoint/wind and sky trends. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 937 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Discussion...updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine...did a quick update to the current marine forecast mainly
to bring winds up a tad for all inshore waters of Alabama and nwfl
through Friday night and to include lower Mobile Bay and the MS
sound east of Pascagoula in the Small Craft Advisory which is in
effect through Friday night. Expect northerly winds at 18 to 23
knots with higher gusts in the advised areas out to 20 nm from
shore tonight through Friday night increasing to 20 to 25 knots
early Friday morning from 20 to 60 nm out. Expect winds at 13 to
18 knots with gusts to 25 knots for all remaining inland waters
through Friday night. 32/ee

Previous discussion... /issued 531 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...
00z issuance...an expansive shield of light rain or drizzle will
gradually shift eastward and taper off to mainly dry conditions
through Friday. Northerly winds 5 to 15 knots tonight become 10
to 15 knots on Friday, with the stronger values near the coast
through the period. Mainly VFR ceilings over the area with some
locations occasionally dropping to IFR/MVFR will be followed by
clearing first over the western portion of the area early Friday
morning, then clearing follows over the central portion of the
area later in the day on Friday. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Near term /now through Friday/...an upper shortwave trough currently
over the Texas/la border rotates east through the deep south tonight
into Friday. A weak jet streak rounds the base of the shortwave and
begins to strengthen tonight as it impinges on and subsequently
passes over the local area. Mesoscale forcing associated with this
jet will continue to support light to moderate rain showers across
the area, with rain chances gradually tapering from west to east
late this evening as the trough departs to the east. Weak surface
cyclogenesis occurs tonight over the northern Florida Peninsula as
the upper trough advances eastward and the jet streak begins to lift
away to the northeast. Northerly flow strengthens over the local
area late tonight in response to a weak surface low developing just
off the Georgia/SC coast. This, coupled with northwest deep-layer flow in
the wake of the departing shortwave, will usher in a drier and more
stable airmass. Expect skies to gradually clear from west to east
late tonight through early Friday, with low temps dipping into the
mid 30s over interior southeast MS/SW Alabama and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Do
not have any winter weather concerns where mid 30s are expected as
these temps will occur well after rain has exited the area and skies
have started to clear. Additional sunshine during afternoon hours
Friday will help temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 50s
across the area. /49

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...the upper low
over the area will continue eastward and off the southeast coast
by Saturday morning. Mid-level ridging develops on Saturday ahead
of another approaching upper trough with highs in upper 50s and
low 60s. The trough will move across the area Sunday night with
mainly just an increase in clouds. Widespread rain is not
expected with this trough due to the lack of significant moisture
return ahead of the tough. /13

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...skies will clear on Monday
as the upper trough moves east of the area. A warming trend will
begin on Monday and continue through the remainder of the week as
upper level ridging and sfc high pressure build over the area.
This will lead to clear skies and temps warming into the mid and
upper 60s on Tuesday to around 70 on Wednesday and Thursday. /13

Marine...a surface trough over the eastern Gulf develops into a weak
low off the Georgia/SC coast over the next 24 hours. The local gradient
tightens between this feature and a broad anticyclone over the
interior eastern conus, resulting in a moderate to strong offshore
flow across the local area. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
unprotected Gulf waters through Friday night. Small craft should
exercise caution in area bays and sounds as well, where winds will
remain gusty enough to create hazardous conditions at times.
Offshore flow relaxes over the weekend before restrengthening early
to mid next week as high pressure over the eastern Continental U.S. Is
reinforced. /49

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

&&

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