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fxus64 kmob 221151 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
651 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...northwesterly to northerly winds will increase
across the forecast area this morning in the wake of a cold front
that is moving through our region. Wind speeds of 10-15 knots with
a few gusts around 20 knots will be possible. Localized MVFR
ceilings will also remain possible across portions of south
central Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle for the next 1-2 hours,
before clouds gradually decrease through the day.


Previous discussion... /issued 439 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/

Near term /now through Tuesday night/...a deep area of low pressure
is located across Wisconsin early this morning, while an associated
cold front is pushing across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and the
deep south. The cold front is locally located very close to the
Interstate 65 corridor as of 4 am CDT. Winds are turning
northwesterly following the passage of the front, while surface
temperatures have also been dropping into the lower 60s.
Temperatures meanwhile remain in the lower 70s ahead of the front
with a few light showers developing along the leading edge of the
boundary. Some patchy fog has also been noted in the vicinity of
Crestview and Florala.

The cold front will quickly push across the rest of the forecast
area early this morning and will be followed by surface high
pressure building eastward across the north central Gulf Coast
region in its wake. A few residual light rain showers may linger
over far southeastern portions of the forecast area just after 7 am,
and will leave a slight pop in the vicinity of southeastern Okaloosa
County and the adjacent offshore waters early this morning. A much
drier airmass will otherwise be ushered into our forecast area today
into tonight, with clearing skies and cooler temperatures expected.
Highs today are forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s. A chilly
night is on tap tonight with lows forecast to range in the lower to
mid 40s over much of the interior, and in the upper 40s to the mid
50s over most locations along the immediate coast.

Residual southerly swell and high tidal ranges (tide outgoing during
the day) will support a continued high risk of rip currents
along local beaches today. /21

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...drier and cooler
conditions continue through Thursday morning as high pressure
slides east across the area. Moisture will begin returning to the
area late in the day on Thursday as an upper trough digs across
the Southern Plains and high pressure moves east. This will bring
the chance of a few showers to coastal areas during the afternoon
with higher rain chances overnight. /13

Long term /Friday through Monday/...models continue to diverge
with the handling of the upper trough late in the week into the
weekend. The European model (ecmwf) remains the slower solution due to the
development of an upper low over the Southern Plains that moves
northeastward along with the sfc low. The trailing front stalls
out northwest of the area with higher rain chances lingering into
early next week. The GFS is more progressive with an inverted
trough at the surface moving through Friday into Friday night. Due
to the large uncertainty, went close to a blend of pops over the
through the period. /13

Marine...a cold front will push southward across the marine area
early this morning. A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop
following the passage of the front. A Small Craft Advisory will
continue for the coastal waters, including lower Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi Sound today as winds increase to 18-23 knots with some
gusts over 25 knots. A fairly tight gradient will persist tonight
into Wednesday morning well offshore as high pressure builds across
the Gulf Coast states. We have opted to extend the Small Craft
Advisory for the offshore waters from 20-60 nm out through 10 am CDT
Wednesday morning. A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow is
expected to persist over the marine area Thursday and Friday on the
southern periphery of ridging over the eastern Seaboard and also
behind the next cold front approaching the Tennessee/MS valley regions from
the plains. /21


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for alz265-266.

Florida...high rip current risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for flz202-204-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for gmz631-632-

Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT Wednesday for gmz670-675.


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