Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmob 180523 aab 
afdmob

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1123 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
06z issuance...VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours,
although a few patches of MVFR conditions in fog will be present
overnight. Light and variable winds tonight become northwest
around 5 knots on Monday. /29

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 525 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...
00z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Calm
or light and variable winds tonight (predominately northwest)
become northwest 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019/

Near term /now through Monday/...surface high pressure centered
near the Upper Texas coast late this afternoon will drift east
into the western Gulf on Monday. This will maintain the dry, light
to moderate northwest to northerly low level flow across the
area. Aloft, a developing trough and passing jet Max today is
resulting in some scattered, thin cirrus clouds and this upper
pattern continue through Monday. Forecast soundings continue to
show a very dry airmass in the lower levels through the near term,
but some increase in moisture in the mid/upper layers which would
support the trend of some higher, mostly thin clouds across the
region. No precipitation is expected in the near term, however.
Primarily a temperature forecast. Lows tonight slightly warmer
than last night, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s over inland
areas and in the mid to upper 40s closer to the coast and along
the beaches. With the influences of the upper trough on Monday,
daytime highs could be a few degrees cooler tomorrow than today,
especially over northern interior counties. Look for highs to
range from the lower 60s far northern counties to the mid 60s
southern counties and along the coast. /12

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...the upper
trough over the area will move eastward as upper level ridging
begins to build in from the west. The combination of the building
ridge aloft and at the sfc will maintain clear skies and dry
conditions through Wednesday. Temperatures will slowly moderate
through the period with highs in the mid 60s on Tuesday and upper
60s to around 70 on Wednesday. /13

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...the sfc and upper ridge
shift eastward Thursday into Friday as the next system develops
across the western states. This will allow low level moisture to
increase across the area. A series of shortwaves will eject out of
the western states trough. One of these will send sfc low pressure
northeast into the Great Lakes region on Thursday with a trailing
cold front stalling across the mid-Mississippi River valley.
Another shortwave moves along the stalled front and gives it a
push southeastward late Friday into Saturday. Timing differences
exist between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with the GFS bringing the front
through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. The European model (ecmwf) is
slower and stronger with the shortwave and does not have the front
moving through until Saturday night. Due to the uncertainty with
the timing of the front, will show increasing rain chances Friday
into Saturday and will cap the rain chances below likely until
timing comes into better agreement. /13

Marine...a high pressure ridge, with center near the Upper Texas
coast late this afternoon, will drift east into the western Gulf on
Monday and then east across the north central and northeast Gulf
through Wednesday and then off the US southeast Atlantic coast by
late Thursday into Friday. This will maintain the generally light to
occasionally moderate winds across the marine area, but shifting
from the northwest to northerly flow on Monday and Tuesday to more
east to southeasterly Wednesday into Friday as the high moves east.
Little change in seas is expected for most of the week, but a slight
building of seas possible by Friday with the longer onshore fetch
associated with the more southeasterly flow. /12

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations